But Don’t Hold Your BREATH!

Who would have thought we’d be EXCITED to see July arrive and June exit because of record heat.  No need to belabor the point.

Dry air behind the cool front this week will be the dryest Friday morning, allowing morning lows to drop to 65 in the metro areas, and to near 60 in rural areas, with lows as cool as 57 in some of the mountain valleys.

After that… highs and lows start slowly climbing back upward to near 95 by Wednesday. And as humidities increase, our friend the HEAT INDEX will return as well.  Hoping for cooler weather in summer is simply a losing battle in the Tennessee Valley.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well.  Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Brad-Huffines-Storm-Force-31-Chief-Meteorologist/100462946668216?ref=sgm

Slightly Cooler is STILL Cooler

A fairly simple weather pattern moving overhead, with a weak upper level storm system pushing along a cool front will stir up the atmosphere enough for some strong to severe t-storms to move across the Mid-South and Southeast. As it does, a wave of less humid air will give us a few days some relief for a few days, but I dread a pattern of hotter and more muggy weather which will inevitably return as summer drags on.

In the Gulf, the wind flow will keep 90% of the storm’s affects in the western and southern Gulf of Mexico, but the winds will drive heavier seas and a few bands of storms that will make oil collection and skimming all but impossible from the spewing well-head. The science community STILL does not really know what will happen when a serious tropical system moves directly across the oil spill, which is much larger than most want to imagine or admit.

Stand by as time passes. What we know, the weather will NOT get cooler over the next 2 months on average, and the oil will not become less a problem. It’s going to be a LONG summer!

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well. Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Lightning is one of Mother Nature’s beauties but do you know how it occurs and how to stay safe?

The action of rising and descending air within a thunderstorm separates positive and negative charges. Water and ice particles also affect the distribution of electrical charge in the atmosphere. Lightning results from the buildup and discharge of electrical energy between positively and negatively charged areas, such as a cloud base and that of the ground. Most lightning occurs within the cloud or between the cloud and ground. Most commonly, lightning occurs within thunderstorms but can also occur within volcanic eruptions.

The average flash of lightning could turn on a 100-watt light bulb for more than 3 months and the air near a lightning strike is hotter than the surface of the sun! The rapid heating and cooling of air near the lightning bolt causes a shock wave. You hear this shock wave as thunder.

Your chances of being struck by lightning are estimated to be 1 in 600,000 but those chances can be reduced by following some safety rules. Most lightning deaths and injuries occur when people are caught outdoors, and most happen in the summer. Remember, NO PLACE outside is safe when thunderstorms are present. If you hear thunder, lightning is close by and can strike you. When you hear thunder immediately move into safe shelter and remember this simple phrase, “Hear the Roar, Go Indoors!”

Here are some lightning safety tips provided by the National Weather Service:

If You Are Outside,  Immediately Head Indoors

If you can’t get into safe shelter then:

•      Immediately get off elevated areas such as hills, mountain ridges or peaks
•      NEVER lie flat on the ground
•      NEVER use a tree for shelter
•      NEVER use a cliff or rocky overhang for shelter
•      Immediately get out and away from ponds, lakes, and other bodies of water
•      Stay away from objects that conduct electricity such as barbed wire fences, power lines and windmills

Even when you are indoors you can still be struck by lightning. Please be safe and remember these tips:

If You Are Inside

• Stay OFF corded phones. You can use cellular or cordless phones
• Don’t touch electrical equipment or cords. Unplug electronic equipment before the storm arrives
• Avoid plumbing. Do not wash your hands, take a shower or wash dishes
• Stay away from windows and doors and stay off porches. Do not lie on concrete floors and don’t lean against concrete walls

Also don’t forget your pets. Dog houses are NOT safe shelters. In addition, dogs that are chained to trees or wire runners can easily become victims of lightning.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Possible First Named Atlantic System on the WAAY

An area of disturbed weather south of Cuba will continue to track off to the northwest over the next couple of days. As it nears the southern Gulf of Mexico it will encounter conditions that will become more favorable for tropical storm development. You can learn more with the video blog entry below:

Time to Remember Those Heat Safety Tips

This weekend and into the start of next week the Tennessee Valley will be bathed in abundant heat and humidity. This combination will make it feel quite uncomfortable as heat index values climb into the range between 100 and 105. In addition, little in the WAAY of relief is expected during the evening and overnight hours. As a result, the heat and humidity of the next few days could become dangerous to your health. Here are some WAAYs to help protect yourself from this heat wave (information from the National Weather Service):

From the Southern Region’s Page on Heat Safety Rules

• Slow down. Strenuous activities should be reduced, eliminated, or rescheduled to the coolest time of the day. Individuals at risk should stay in the coolest available place, not necessarily indoors.
• Dress for summer. Lightweight, light-colored clothing reflects heat and sunlight, and helps your body maintain normal temperatures.
• Put less fuel on your inner fires. Foods (like proteins) that increase metabolic heat production also increase water loss.
• Drink plenty of water or other non-alcohol fluids. Your body needs water to keep cool.
• Drink plenty of fluids even if you don’t feel thirsty. Persons who have epilepsy or heart, kidney, or liver disease, are on fluid restrictive diets, or have a problem with fluid retention should consult a physician before increasing their consumption of fluids.
• Do not drink alcoholic beverages.
• Do not take salt tablets unless specified by a physician. Persons on salt restrictive diets should consult a physician before increasing their salt intake.
• Spend more time in air-conditioned places. Air conditioning in homes and other buildings markedly reduces danger from the heat. If you cannot afford an air conditioner, spending some time each day (during hot weather) in an air conditioned environment affords some protection.
• Don’t get too much sun. Sunburn makes the job of heat dissipation that much more difficult.

Know These Heat Disorder Symptoms

• Sunburn – Redness and pain. In severe cases swelling of skin, blisters, fever and headaches.
• Heat Cramps – Painful spasms usually in muscles of legs and abdomen possible. Heavy sweating.
• Heat Exhaustion – Heavy sweating, weakness, skin cold, pale and clammy. Fainting and vomiting. Normal temperature possible.
• Heat or Sun Stroke – High body temperature (106 or higher). Hot, dry skin. Rapid and strong pulse. Possible unconsciousness.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

No What to Expect Regarding the Weather and the Oil

If you are planning on heading to the Gulf Coast this weekend or next week you need to be prepared for heat, humidity, high uv index and unfortunately some more oil. As of Thursday, the U.S. Coast Guard was reporting scattered tar balls just off shore from Robertson Island, Florida to Perdido Key, AL and some red emulsion about 15 miles south of Gulf Shores.

The forecast surface winds through this weekend and into the middle of next week will generally be from the southwest to the northeast. This will continue the potential for light sheen and scattered tar balls to come ashore along the beaches of Alabama and Florida from Orange Beach/Perdido Key in Alabama eastward to Pensacola Beach, Florida.

The Alabama Department of Health is discouraging individuals from swimming in the Gulf Waters off Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Ft. Morgan; however, the beaches ARE OPEN.

Some good news is the weather forecast. Abundant sunshine can be expected through the weekend with only a few, typical, afternoon thunderstorms early next week.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Oh, How The Garden Grows

On Monday, we celebrated the 1-Year Anniversary of the Backyard Water Garden. We have really seen the garden grow during this time period. It has also been fun providing you with the weather throughout the year at its side. My favorite, so far, was when the garden looked like a winter wonderland with ice covering the falls!

Thanks to Lee Vought from Vought Water Gardens for aiding us in our celebration.

Dale Bader/Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

A Question Many of You are Asking

Here is information requarding this question from NOAA and the National Weather Service.

What will happen to a hurricane that runs through this oil slick?
• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the ocean (200-300 miles) —
far wider than the current size of the spill.    

  • If the slick remains small in comparison to a typical hurricane’s
general environment and size, the anticipated impact on the hurricane
would be minimal.

• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either the intensity or
the track of a fully developed tropical storm or hurricane.

• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm surge or near-
shore wave heights.

What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help
accelerate the biodegradation process.

• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider area, but it is difficult
to model exactly where the oil may be transported.

• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.

• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the
surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by
oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases
that may occur during the storm.

• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise. Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:

• A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast.
• A hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from
  the coast.

However, the details of the evolution of the storm, the track, the wind speed,
the size, the forward motion and the intensity are all unknowns at this point
and may alter this general statement.

 Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. Over
relatively calm water (such as for a developing tropical depression or
disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress evaporation if the layer
is thick enough, by not allowing contact of the water to the air.

• With less evaporation one might assume there would be less moisture available
to fuel the hurricane and thus reduce its strength.

• However, except for immediately near the source, the slick is very patchy.
At moderate wind speeds, such as those found in approaching tropical storms and
hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as is the case with the current slick (except
in very limited areas near the well) would likely break into pools on the surface
or mix as drops in the upper layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks,
however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the storm passes.)

• This would allow much of the water to remain in touch with the overlying air and
greatly reduce any effect the oil may have on evaporation.

• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a significant impact on the
hurricane. 

Will the hurricane pull up the oil that is below the surface of the Gulf?
• All of the sampling to date shows that except near the leaking well, the
subsurface dispersed oil is in parts per million levels or less. The hurricane will
mix the waters of the Gulf and disperse the oil even further.

 Have we had experience in the past with hurricanes and oil spills?
• Yes, but our experience has been primarily with oil spills that occurred because
of the storm, not from an existing oil slick and an ongoing release of oil from the
seafloor.

• The experience from hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) was that oil released
during the storms became very widely dispersed.

• Dozens of significant spills and hundreds of smaller spills occurred from offshore
facilities, shoreside facilities, vessel sinkings, etc.

Will there be oil in the rain related to a hurricane?
•No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large area, much larger than the area covered
by oil,and rain is produced in clouds circulating the hurricane.

 Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Reminder of the Dangers of Lightning

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. (AP) – A lightning strike in Yellowstone National Park injured nine people waiting to see Old Faithful geyser erupt. One man was hospitalized while the others suffered minor injuries. Yellowstone spokesman Al Nash says the lightning struck about 4 p.m. Tuesday.

He says a 57-year-old man, whose name was not released, was taken to Eastern Idaho Regional Medical Center in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Nash says his condition was not available but some bystanders performed CPR on him before rangers arrived. Seven others complaining of shortness of breath, tingling or numbness were treated and released from Old Faithful Clinic, while a ninth person struck did not seek medical attention. Hundreds of visitors were in the area at the time.

This is a great reminder on the dangers of lightning. An estimated 25 million lightning strikes occur in the U.S. each year. On average, 58 people per year are killed as a result of lightning and is the second largest killer of weather phenomenon.

To stay safe, first, stay weather aware and watch for developing thunderstorms. During the summer, thunderstorms can develop quickly with little or no warning. If the sky begins looking dark and unsettled head indoors. Also, remember that lightning can strike as far as 10 miles from where it is raining. So if you hear thunder, take cover.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

May Make Landfall Midweek

So far the beaches and coastline of Alabama have been spared from becoming oil covered. Unfortunately, the current forecast is not looking good and by midweek an oily sheen may be washing ashore from Gulf Shores westward. Today’s satellite imagery still shows the abundance of the oil well off shore and South of the Alabama coastline; however, the forecast surface winds do not favor keeping the oil out to sea. NOAA and the U.S. Coast Guard are reporting sheen about 15 miles south of Dauphin Island as of Monday, May 31, 2010.  Red-Orange emulsion and tar balls were as close at 30 miles south of Dauphin Island. The forecast is for a south to southwesterly flow all week and at times  the velocity will be at a rather stiff clip.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Above Normal Activity Forecast

June 1^st officially begins this year’s tropical weather season so it is time to take a look at the tropics. This year I am forecasting a much more active tropical season compared to last year, one in which only 9 named storms occurred; the lowest number of named storms since 1997. The official Storm Force 31 Tropical Forecast calls for 14 named tropical cyclones, with 9 of those becoming a hurricane. In addition, 4 of the 9 hurricanes are forecast to become “Major”. Lastly, 3 of the named systems are forecast to make U.S. landfall.

Several factors are pointing to an increase in tropical cyclone development for 2010 and were considered for this year’s forecast.

• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Atlantic are significantly warmer than compared to 2009. In May 2009, SSTs across the tropical Atlantic were averaging about 0.5 degree Celcius below normal. However, currently, SSTs across this same region are averaging about 1 degree Celcius above normal.
• The rapidly weakening El Nino in the tropical Pacific will lead to weaker trade winds across the tropics of the Atlantic favoring the development of tropical cyclones. In 2009, we were heading into a modest to strong El Nino that continued through the winter. The El Nino increased the trade winds and wind shear across the traditional tropical cyclone development regions of the Atlantic. In turn, much less activity occurred.
• As mentioned above, 2009 saw the fewest Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1997, another El Nino year. For the 2010 tropical season, we will see the El Nino weaken into neutral condtions and possibly by late in the season, a weak La Nina. Neutral and especially La Nina conditions are very favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclone development. In 1998, after the 1997 El Nino, we saw a similar situation take place and 14 named storms developed with 3 becoming “Major”

What do we mean when we say a hurricane is “Major” since to most of us all hurricanes are significant? Hurricanes are classified based on the maximum wind speed of the system. This classification is known as the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

When a hurricane reaches Category 3 or higher strength it is classified a “Major”

To arrive at this year’s forecast, several previous years with similar conditions were reviewed. These include 1958, 1969, 1995 and 1998. During the tropical season in all of these years we saw a weakening of an already established El Nino; however, less so in 1958 and 1969. In these tropical season’s, most of the storm development occurred across the central Atlantic. The storms then tracked to the north-northeast and mainly affected the eastern U.S. and major shipping routes. However, it should be noted that there were a few “Major” hurricanes developed and made landfall along the Gulf Coast. One occurred in 1969, Hurricane Camille and another in 1995, Hurricane Opal.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Holiday Weekend T-storms Possible

We remain between major storm systems, with scattered showers and t-storms developing at the peak in the day’s heat and instability, then move slowly in varying directions. The daily heat index will likely climb to near to above 90 each day with morning lows starting off in the middle to upper 60s.

Little change is heading our way, even as Hurricane Season begins on June 1.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well. Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

The Greatest Potential for Loss of Life Related to Hurricanes

This is National Hurricane Awareness Week and even though we don’t live on the Coast, many of our residents either visit or have property there. As a result, it is important that you be aware of hurricanes and know how to stay safe just like our friends further south.

Today’s theme is about storm surge and how to stay safe from it. The information provided is from the National Hurricane Center.

Storm surge is simply water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more. In addition, wind driven waves are superimposed on the storm tide. This rise in water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly when the storm tide coincides with the normal high tides. Because much of the United States’ densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines lie less than 10 feet above mean sea level, the danger from storm tides is tremendous.

Temperatures Around 90, Muggy and Scattered Afternoon Storms

As we head through this week it will definitely remind us that summer is just around the corner. We will see several days reach and even surpass the 90 degree mark as an upper level ridge allows heat from Texas to build northeastward.

Sunday’s high of 95 broke a record set in 1925 and was the warmest temperature the Valley had seen since June 18, 2009 when 95 was reached last.

That occurred during our early season heat wave last year. Reminder, that heat wave started June 15, 2009 and lasted for 20 days with temperatures at or above 90 degrees!

Not expecting a heat wave like that just yet even though we will likely put together back-to-back 90 degree days on Monday. But by Tuesday, a disturbance near the Bahamas will meander towards the Southeastern U.S. Coast. A couple pieces of energy will rotate around it and they will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of Tennessee and Alabama.

This will keep temperatures tempered in the 80s. Rain chances become less on Wednesday; however, I still anticipate enough affects to keep temperatures in the 80s. The 90s return, though, on Thursday and that may begin a brief heat wave of 90 degree days as 90s will be likely through next weekend. This as the upper level ridge builds back to the east and over the top of the Tennessee Valley

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Including Chief Meteorologist Brad Huffine’s Son, Ben

The next 7-days will see graduations of all of the U.S. military academies, including the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, the U.S. Air Force Academy, and the U.S. Naval Academy. It is accomplishment only a very few can say they complete. This weekend, you may notice the absence of Chief Meteorologist, Brad Huffines. No, he is not playing hooky. Instead, he is partaking in one of these historic graduations as he watches his eldest son shake the hand of the President and graduate from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. A proud father for sure!. Congratulations, Brad, and also to your son, Ben.

Here is a special Dale’s Destination forecast for all of the West Point graduates, new and old.

To all of the graduates of our nations military academies and to all who are serving or have served our nation, THANK YOU

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31