This winter’s weather pattern across the southeastern United States will be strongly influenced by the affects of El Nino. El Nino is a warming of Pacific equatorial waters that aides in enhancing the southern jet stream which moves across the southern U.S. It helps to bring increased precipitation from California to Florida and also aides in providing cooler than normal conditions for most of the southeastern U.S.

 Here is a current look at the water temperature annomolies in the equitorial Pacific.

All El Niños are not the same and the above information is the average. To help predict the 2009-10 winter season comparisons have been made with several previous El Niños of similar current and forecast strength. In addition, several additional variables have been compared and reviewed and some of these include the current and forecast Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values and the Multivariate ENSO Index. This information has provided the following previous winter seasons as reference: 1957-58, 1963-64, 1976-77 and 2002-03. Each year was given a weighted value and when placed in weighted value the reference years were aligned as: 1957-58, 2002-03, 1976-77, 1963-64.

 

You may be asking yourself, “What were these winters like?” Well, here is some information regarding them.

 

1957-58

 

Month	Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall
December	2 Degrees Above	0.7” Below Normal	None
January	3 Degrees Below	2.9” Below Normal	None
February	11.5 Degrees Below	0.9” Below Normal	8 inches

 

Notes:

December was generally mild with only one cold spell that lasted only 2 days with one day having a high of only 25 degrees a morning low of 8 degrees. January was cool but would not have seemed extreme with highs generally in the low to mid 40s for much of the month. 5 days saw highs only in the 30s and an equal number of days dropped into the teens for lows with the coldest morning reaching 13. The February average maximum temperature is 54 degrees but in February 1958 the average maximum temperature was only 44 degrees. 15 days saw highs of 39 degrees or less with coldest day time high being 19 degrees on the 16^th followed by a morning low of -8 degrees on the 17^th. All 8” of snow fell in a single event.

 

1963-64

 

Month	Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall
December	9.2 Degrees Below	0.7” Above Normal	21.4 Inches
January	1.1 Degrees Above	0.2” Below Normal	1.7 Inches
February	3.5 Degrees Below	0.9” Below Normal	1 inch

 

Notes:

December of 1963 saw 11 out of 12 days with daily maximum temperatures in the 30s and this stretch occurred midmonth. During this cold stretch minimum daily temperatures reached into the teens 8 times with the coldest being 10 degrees on the 19^th.  Snow fell on 7 separate days with 4” falling on the 22^nd, 1.5” on the 23^rd and 15.7 on the 31^st. January was a relatively mild month with a brief cool spell to start out the month and again mid-month. Snow continued to fall from New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day with 1.4” falling. Snow will occur again another 4 times during the month with only an additional 0.3” of accumulation. February was relatively uneventful but snow did occur on 5 separate days.

 

 

 

1976-77

 

Month	Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall
December	3.1 Degrees Below	2.1” Below Normal	None
January	11.1 Degrees Below	1.8” Below Normal	0.9 Inch
February	2.0 Degrees Below	1.6” Below Normal	None

 

Notes:

December of 1976 saw four days with maximum daily highs of less than 40 degrees with the coolest being 29 on the 21^st. The pattern began to turn colder and more active the last two days of the month. The minimum daily temperature on New Year’s Eve was 8 degrees. In addition a trace of snow fell on both the 30^th and 31^st.  January 1977 was quite chilly with the coldest period being the 17^th-19^th when daily maximum temperatures were in the 20s and minimum daily temperatures were in the single digets, In fact, on the 17^th, the minimum temperature was -1 degrees.  Snow fell on 10 different occurrences, too. February had two minor and brief cool spells but has an early taste of Spring, late month, when temperatures rose into the 70s three times. A trace of snow fell only once.

 

2002-03

 

Month	Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall
December	1.0 Degree Below	0.6” Above Normal	None
January	4.4 Degrees Below	4.1” Below Normal	0.4 Inch
February	1.1 Degrees Below	2.9” Above Normal	0.5 Inch

 

Notes:

December of 2002 was not very exciting with nothing special to note except on morning did drop to 19 degrees and one day saw a trace of snowfall. January saw temperatures that were below normal but nothing extreme. Snow fell on 7 separate days but all but one just saw a trace.  Like January, nothing extreme to really note. Snow fell on two separate days.

 

Here is a map just simply compiling the four winter seasons together regarding temperatures for the entire U.S.

 

So here is the official Storm Force 31 Winter Forecast:

 

 Now if you are interested, here is how the Fall Outlook verified.  How did the Storm Force 31 Team Do?

 September

 

	Temperature	90 or Greater	Precipitation	Severe Weather
Forecast	Near Normal	3 Days	Near Normal	5 Days
Actual	Slightly Above	5 Days	Slightly Above

 

October

 

	Temperature	80 or Greater	Precipitation	Severe Weather
Forecast	Slightly Above	8 Days	Near Normal	None
Actual	Near Normal	2 Day	Much Above	4 Days

 

November

 

	Temperature	Max 50 or Less	Min 30 or Less	Precipitation	Snowfall	Severe Weather
Forecast	Slightly Below	12 Days	8 Days	Slightly Below	Trace	1 Day
Actual	Above Normal	1 Day	1 Day	Below Normal	None	None

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