Why Storm Force 31 Forecast is Colder than Others for Late Week

As was expected in the Fall and discussed during the Winter Outlook, this winter has been colder than normal with an increased chance of seeing snow/ice in the southern U.S. and especially the Tennessee Valley. Friday’s most recent bout with wintery weather is likely not the last as February is setting up to be another cold and active month.

The next few days will be rather quiet with high pressure building into the Southeast. With the fresh snow pack along the I-40 corridor and a northerly breeze flowing across it, morning temperatures will be on the cold side. A few areas, especially through southern-middle Tennessee into extreme northern Alabama will likely see some low temperatures into the teens while further south they will be in the low 20s. During the afternoon’s (Sunday/Monday) we will see quite a bit of sunshine.

An “Alberta Clipper” will help to deliver some reinforcing Arctic air to the north of the Valley, Monday through Wednesday. With the “Clipper”, a band of accumulating snow is anticipated along and north of the I-80 corridor from Nebraska to Pennsylvania. Snowfall is not expected to be extreme but there will likely be a wide swath of 2” to 4”. This will help to provide an almost continuous snow cover from just south of the Ohio River northward to Canada, nearly the entire northeastern quadrant of the U.S.! This is important because snow cover helps to aid in cold air maintaining itself as it slides south out of the Arctic region.

As the “Clipper” moves through the Valley on Tuesday morning, a few sprinkles are anticipated. Temperatures at the time will be in the 30s. Some locations may be near freezing so some patchy slick may occur. This IS NOT anticipated to be a storm of any major consequence for the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley! The “Clipper” will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning with a cold front clearing the entire Southeast, even the south tip of Florida. Some reinforcing Arctic cold will slide into the Southeast; however, it is not anticipated to be sharp shot of cold but it will allow temperatures in the mornings to fall back below freezing as far south as the Tennessee river towards the end of the week.

Attention will then turn to the Southwestern U.S. where another storm system will move ashore associated with the subtropical jetstream. This system will spread more rains and mountain snows to the western U.S. from Canada into the desert Southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. This upper level energy will begin to aid in the development of a surface storm system northeastern “Old” Mexico by Thursday morning. In its advance, a southerly flow will set up and produce a solid fetch of Gulf moisture that will encompass much of the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida by Thursday morning.

From this point forward, there are several solutions being shown by weather modeling data. I have decided to follow more closely a model known as the “European” model or ECMWF versus the American long range model, Global Forecasting System (GFS) or the Canadian model. Why? Over time I have learned to have more confidence in the ECMWF as a long range model, being consistently more accurate. In addition, it did a pretty good job with regards to the forecast several days out with the Friday weather event. So as I continue and mention location and timing of systems for late this week note it is nearly the solution being indicated by the current ECMWF. Other forecasts you will likely see the next few days will likely be based more closely on the GFS and for that reason the Storm Force 31 7-day forecast will likely be a bit different.

The surface low that is forecast to develop over “Old” Mexico is forecast to track to the northeast Thursday into Friday across the Gulf of Mexico and moving to a location south of New Orleans by Friday morning.

ECMWF Friday AM Forecast

At the same time an Arctic high pressure will be sliding east out of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. A wedge of Arctic air is likely to get caught up against the eastern face of the Appalachians from North Carolina into northern Georgia. Will the cold air remain in place over the Tennessee Valley? That will have to be watched as we get closer to the event. Because widespread rain is likely to overspread the entire Southeast by Friday morning. In fact, the northern edge of the precipitation shield may make it as far north as the Ohio River by sunrise Friday. It would appear that conditions would most likely be favorable for “Rain” as the precipitation type even as far north as the Ohio River. However, at the surface, I do believe temperatures will be at or below freezing for a period for the eastern facing Appalachians due to a scenario we call in meteorology as “Cold Air Damming”.

By Saturday morning the low is forecast to continue to track northeast and be located near Norfolk, Virginia. In addition, a second piece of upper level energy is forecast to drop southeast out of Canada and merge with the system. This track and additional energy would take abundant rainfall up along the East Coast of the U.S. with snow likely into the Ohio Valley and as far west as possibly the Mississippi Valley and as far south as the Tennessee Valley.

As a result, this will be another storm system to monitor this week. Could the Tennessee Valley and others in the Mid-South see another round of ice/snow setting up the potential for two events in just a week? Yes, possibly. Obviously, the old adage must be restated, “It is still several days out and a lot can change. The track and strength of the storm system will greatly determine where and if any wintry precipitation occurs.” Based on recent trends and indicators I have been monitoring, I do believe this is good potential solution but only time will tell us for sure.

Now, quickly, what do the other models say? Well, both the Canadian and the GFS show a Gulf system moving northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico. The operational GFS is a bit faster and further east with the system over time while its Ensemble is a bit slower, further south and then further west and is in between the operational GFS and ECMWF.

GFS Friday AM Forecast, Notice Low Over NE FL

The operational Canadian is slower than the GFS but still a bit faster than the ECMWF. Its ensemble is a bit slower yet and also a bit further west than compared to the operational model. Still the ECMWF is the slowest and furthest west than the others. By the way, what is an ensemble? It is a composite of multiple model variations of the same model, sort-of-like an average.

Well, that is enough for now. Stay tuned through the week for the latest forecast.

Dale Bader / Storm Force 31, Meteorologist

Early Accumulations North, w/ Precipitation Mixing it Up

While the precipitation began, the atmospheric conditions were ripe for a changeover to snow from northern parts of North Alabama all the way up into Middle Tennessee. Areas of Freezing Rain accumulation early began to threaten many of our plans for Friday and Saturday.

 Atmospheric computer models were starting to all agree that warmer air would soon overtake the cold, and change virtually everything into rain.

Voila.

Showers moved across the Valley well into the evening hours of Friday. A few freezing temperatures may cause patches of ice in the overnight and morning hours of Saturday, then again on Sunday, so be aware of any areas of what seems to be water on the roads. It might be a patch of ice.

The weekend will remain chilly, with morning lows falling into the teens Sunday. Then the highs will slowly climb out of the cellar to start the new week, as showers will dampen parts of next week.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on facebook as well. Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Accumulations of Ice and Snow are Possible

As of press time for THIS BLOG, the areas that will likely see the worst of it will be the mountains of North Alabama, the Northwest CORNER of Alabama, and into all of Southern Middle Tennessee (as well as the northern parts of Colbert, Limestone, and Madison Counties.

A storm system will be passing across the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday morning.  When it does, a significant stream of moisture will cross the Tennessee Valley.  Unfortunately, a cold air mass will be in place, and that is where the trouble begins.

Those areas where the temperatures are below freezing in a shallow layer near the ground, the rain that falls will freeze upon contact on roads, power lines, cars, trees, and other objects.  Where the cold air layer is a little deeper, rain that falls into those areas will freeze before it hits the ground into sleet.

In those areas where the sub-freezing layer reaches from the ground up, the precipitation will fall as snow.  There will be indefinable lines between these weather types as the system moves across, and some areas may pass from line to line and back again, depending on the storm structure.

Whatever falls where you live or plan to travel on Friday afternoon thru Saturday, you need to be very careful since there may be areas that remained above freezing directly next to or mingled in the middle of areas that have frozen.

Whatever falls will start to melt Sunday, with slick spots remaining until temperatures rise above and stay above freezing Monday afternoon.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on facebook as well.  Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Accumulations of Ice and Snow are Possible

A storm system will be passing across the Southeast Thursday and Friday.  When it does, a significant stream of moisture will cross the Tennessee Valley.  Unfortunately, a cold air mass will be in place, and that is where the trouble begins.  Those areas where the temperatures are below freezing in a shallow layer near the ground, the rain that falls will freeze upon contact on roads, power lines, cars, trees, and other objects.  Where the cold air layer is a little deeper, rain that falls into those areas will freeze before it hits the ground into sleet.  In those areas where the sub-freezing layer reaches from the ground up, the precipitation will fall as snow.  There will be indefinable lines between these weather types as the system moves across, and some areas may pass from line to line and back again, depending on the storm structure.

Whatever falls where you live or plan to travel on Friday, you need to be very careful since there may be areas that remained above freezing directly next to or mingled in the middle of areas that have frozen.

Whatever falls will start to melt Sunday, with slick spots remaining until temperatures rise above and stay above freezing Monday afternoon.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on facebook as well.  Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Still a Watcher for the Tennessee Valley

This is a very complicated and difficult winter storm forecast for the Tennessee Valley and a lot can still change. Confidence is definitely increasing for a major winter storm for much of the I-40 corridor from New Mexico-Amarillo-Oklahoma City-Little Rock-Memphis-Nashville Thursday through Friday. If you are planning travel in these locations please be aware of the potential travel hazards that could greet you.

For the Tenneessee Valley, we remain on the edge and portions of the Valley may see a significant storm, still. But exact location and timing is still a bit up in the air. An explanation of why questions still remain and examples of some of the different solutions being shown by meteorological modeling is shown in today’s video post.

Take a look and enjoy!

Dale Bader / Storm Force 31, Meteorologist

A potential major winter storm with snow and ice is eying portions of the southern U.S. for later this week. The question is, “Exactly where?”. To help give you an idea of where the potential lies and the reason questions linger, I have provide a video blog post. Enjoy!

Dale Bader / Storm Force 31, Meteorologist

A Few Scary Moments for Some Huntsville Residents

Thursday afternoon, January 21, 2010, as a developing thunderstorm passed over Huntsville, the atmosphere was very dynamic with a shear environment that spun numerous t-storms in the Tennessee Valley into small, low-topped mesocyclones.

One of those storms laid a string of pea to baseball sized hail from western Lincoln County, TN to Fayetteville, TN.  Shortly afterward, a storm that had developed over Decatur moved over Madison with a developing wall cloud, then a tornado that touched down in and around downtown and east Huntsville.  The slide show below are images sent to WAAY-31 from viewers and news staff as they saw the event unfolding.

A Textbook Earthquake

In a part of the world known for turmoil, violence, unrest, and misery, now becomes the world’s most tragic public disaster since the tsunamis in Indonesia in 2004.  Lying along a fault line, estimated to see no more than 8mm of movement per year, there was a slippage large enough to bring about a 7.0 earthquake 6.2 miles below the surface, rippling through the ground like the waves of a stone thrown onto the surface of a tranquil pond.  Most larger earthquakes are not just rattling of the ground, but waves of energy literally tearing through the earth, bouncing everything on the surface up and down until the quake ends.  Imagine building a lego building on a table top, then shaking it up and down for 10 to 15 seconds.  The buildings, made of little more than bricks, cinder blocks and concrete, when shaken up and down, have little reinforcement to keep them from collapsing.

The image above is of the main quake, 7.0, and the over 40 aftershocks in the 45 hours following the earthquake.  The data is from the United States Geologic Survey, displayed on Storm Force 31’s VIPIR Max, a display computer produced by Baron Services in Huntsville, AL.

While you can read numerous accounts of tragedy all across the web, I have placed into this blog two images provided to WAAY-31 through Baron Services that are of the famous Port-au-Prince Cathedral by Digital Globe.  The first is before the earthquake occurred.

Notice the famous cross shape of one of the world’s most famous cathedrals.  The image below is of the cathedral following the collapse that took the life of the archbishop serving in his office at the time of the quake.

Even though the shadowing and angle of imagery is different, it is clear to see the roof has collapsed, with a pile of rubble in the street on the lower end side of the cathedral.  A tragic level of destruction of a cathedral build from 1884 to 1914.

Now, while this is the first strong earthquake since 1860, Port-au-Prince is not a stranger to damaging earthquakes, with previous quakes occurring in the 1700s.

For continuing coverage of the Haitian Earthquake of 2010, keep watching WAAY-31 News, ABC World News, and of course, your favorite internet news and information sites.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Broke Old Record By More than One Degree

If you have been a long time resident of the Tennessee Valley you may have been asking yourself, “When was the last time a new year started out being this cold?” The answer, “NEVER!” The first 10 days of 2010 were the coldest first ten days of a calendar year in the Tennesee Valley. The average temperature during those ten days at Huntsville International Airport was 24.8 degrees. This broke the old record of 26.1 degrees set in 1942. Muscle Shoals also saw a new record for the same time period, with an average temperature of 24.6 degrees. The old record in the Shoals was 24.8 degrees, also set in 1942.

However, this is not the coldest ten day stretch on record.  For Huntsville, that record was set during the time period between January 19th and 28th in 1940 when the average temperature was a frigid 14.9 degrees! For Muscle Shoals, the record was set February 6th through 15th, 1899, with an average temperature of 15.1 degrees.

Here is a grphic depicting the cold for the first ten days of the year in the Valley. Please note the scale uses temperatures in Celcius and not Fahrenheit. That means the -10 being shown is aproximately 18 degrees below normal Fahrenheit!

Departure From Normal Jan 1-10, 2010

It has also been a cold start for most of the United States, especially the Southeast as the below image depicts. Again, please note the scale utilizes temperature in Celsius and not Fahrenheit.

Departure From Normal Jan 1-10, 2010

As a whole, the meteorological winter, beginning December 1, 2009, is off to a cold start for much of the U.S. including the Tennessee Valley and that is fitting the Storm Force 31 Winter Outlook very well.

December 2009 Departure from Normal

Here is how the outlook forecast matched up with actuals for the month of December:

• Temperatures were forecast to be slightly below normal. The actual report was 0.6 degrees below normal, or a tad below, for Huntsville . It was a bit colder in the Shoals with an average monthly temperature that was 1.4 degrees below normal; still in the slightly below category.
• The outlook was forecasting 8 days to have a maximum daily temperature of 45 degrees or less. At Huntsville we had 10 days meet that criteria. In the Shoals, 11 days met the criteria.
• The outlook also forecast 9 days to have a minimum daily temperature of 25 degrees of less.  We missed that mark a bit as both Huntsville and Muscle Shoals. In Huntsville, only 3 days met that criteria while the Shoals had 5.. However, if you would use 26 degrees or less that changes to 6 days in Huntsville and 7 days in the Shoals.
• The outlook predicted near normal precipitation. The actual end result was a wetter than normal December in Huntsville while it was near normal in the Shoals.
• The outlook predicted snow to be well above normal with 3.3″. We had snow but not enough to meet the forecast. Huntsville only officially reported 0.3″ and the Shoals only officially reported a “Trace” However, as much as 1.6″ was reported in Hollytree (Jackson County) and in Union Grove (Marshall County).

Dale Bader /Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Grocery Prices May Rise

The recent cold that has impacted the Tennessee Valley has also impacted much of the eastern 2/3 of the United States including the growing regions of South Texas and Florida. According to the Florida Department of Agriculture, Florida accounts for 70% of the total U.S. citrus production and ranks first in the production of grapefruit, tangerines, sugar cane, snap beans, tomatoes, cucumbers, squash, bell peppers, watermelon and sweet corn. The state also ranks second in the production of strawberries.

This is a critical time for Florida farmers as many fruits and vegetables are at a critical point in their winter growing season. To try to save their crops, farmers have been actively irrigating their crops in hopes that the freeze will freeze the water and not the crop. When water freezes it gives of a bit of heat and that can be just enough of a difference between a crop being save and one that becomes a loss.

Saturday morning saw morning low temperatures fall into the 20s across much of the major citrus belt from Tampa to Daytona Beach but at this time growers feel that they have been able to protect most of their crop. However, another cold night is planned for Sunday into early Monday.

So what would happen if significant losses occur? If you are an orange juice consumer you will likely see higher prices as nearly 95% of the oranges grown in Florida are utilized for orange juice production. So a significant loss in crop would likely yield to higher juice prices. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that orange juice future prices have already risen 17% this year. In addition, if like me, you enjoy strawberries in February and March prior to the local crop being avaliable, you may have to lay out more dough to enjoy those shortcakes.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Much Below Normal Temperatures To Impact the Tennessee Valley Through the Weekend

The latest forercast calls for temperatures to remain below freezing though midday Monday.  Wind chill temperatures on Saturday morning will be the coldest of the season so far.  The graphic below depicts lowest wind chill temperatures expected for Saturday morning…

A few safety tips for this prolonged cold snap follow, but first, some climatological history.

At Huntsville, the record for consecutive days below 40 degrees was set in January 1978, with 14 days in a row. In fact, snow was recorded on 12 out of 19 days in January 1978, and snow was on the ground most days between the 9th and the 28th of that month.

Of more recent memory were cold snaps in December 1989 and early February 1996. In both cases lows were near zero and highs only around ten above. However, it is worth noting that those cold snaps were of a shorter duration (although perhaps a greater strength) than the current one is expected to be.

The coldest morning lows since 2003 are likely over the upcoming weekend, and there is the potential to see the first back-to-back days below 25 degrees since the 1996 cold snap.

It does appear this will be among the top-five coldest first ten days of January since 1970.

Now on to some cold weather safety tips:

For people:
Stay inside a warm building as much as possible. Limit your time outside. If you must be outside, dress in multiple layers of warm clothing, and leave as little of your body exposed to the elements as possible. Don’t forget gloves and a hat. When inside, be aware of the fire danger from candles and space heaters, and keep those heating devices a safe distance away from anything else to reduce the risk of fire. Do not use fuel-burning devices, including generators, inside because they can produce dangerous carbon monoxide emissions. Check on the elderly and homebound. These persons are more susceptible to cold-related injuries like frostbite or hypothermia.

For pets:
Bring pets inside if at all possible. If that is absolutely not possible, ensure they have a fresh supply of non-frozen water at all times and shelter them from the elements as much as possible.

For pipes:
Research has shown that the likelihood of frozen water pipes increases when temperatures drop below 20 degrees in the southern United States. Insulate all pipes that are exposed to the elements, in attics, crawl spaces, or along outside walls. Leave cabinet doors open under the sink to allow warmer air to circulate. Let faucets drip slowly to keep water flowing.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

The COLD Air Remains a Main Concern

The snow amounts are mounting to just about as expected. The moisture is limited, and therefore the snow density is low. The flakes are small, and the end of the snow is already pushing out of the Shoals. For the rest of the afternoon, the light snow will fall on and off, with little additional accumulation except for Northeast Alabama and eastern parts of Southern Middle Tennessee. Many area roads have become slick and difficult to drive. Those planning to head out tonight, please allow PLENTY of extra time. And after the game tonight, if you are heading out to watch it somewhere, go slowly and be patient. Whatever shape the roads are in when the sun sets, that is what they’ll be all night and in the morning.

Bitter cold air is still moving in place and will be in the Tennessee Valley through the weekend. There is a chance we might briefly climb above freezing on Sunday, but it will be midday Monday until temperatures spend several hours above freezing.

Remain Weather Aware, check the 7-Day Forecast for Details, and follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on facebook as well.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Snow Chances Remain, Accumulations Uncertain

Snow occurrences have to overcome a lot to make for accumulations in the Tennessee Valley.

1.) Moisture Content in the Cloud(s): Mid-level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico has to increase moisture density enough to produce enough collecting ice crystals to form snowflakes  to fall into the atmoshoere beneath.

2.) Moisure Content in the Lower Atmosphere: Until there is sufficient moisture where the snow is falling, the snowflakes will sublimate into vapor (literally) and never hit the ground, until there is a humidity level high enough to stop the sublimation, allowing the flakes to reach the ground.

3.) Number of Hours of Efficient Snow Production: Once the snow hits the ground, how long it falls and at what rate determine any accumulation, if the ground is cold enough to receive it and keep it frozen.

4.) Road and Soil Temperature: Not an issue with this weather system.

5.) Atmospheric Temperature Profile: Not an issue with this weather system.

So, until we are closer to the actual snow-event, the accumulation forecast is virtually impossible but to do anything but guess.  My current ‘guess’, 1/4 to 1″, 2″ in Mtns.

Then bitter cold.

Remain Weather Aware, check the 7-Day Forecast for Details, and follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on facebook as well.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

State Farm® reports increase in cost of water claims, reminds consumers to take precautions

Here is some valuable information provided by State Farm Insurance on how you can help protect yourself and your property from frozen pipes.

Birmingham, AL January 4, 2010 – The average cost per claim – about $15,000 – related to water damage from frozen pipes increased 33 percent between 2007 and 2008, State Farm reports.

As Old Man Winter makes his way across the country it’s important to take a few minutes to assess pipe vulnerability. Freezing temperatures could cause pipes to freeze and burst, destroying floors, furniture, appliances and treasured family heirlooms.

“A small crack in a pipe can cause extensive damage,” says State Farm spokesman Roszell Gadson.

“In most cases, water losses can be avoided by taking a few simple precautions. Spending a few minutes to protect your pipes could save you time and expense down the road,” he says.

Homeowners can reduce the chance their pipes will freeze by insulating pipes in unheated areas and those that run along outside walls, floors and ceilings. Disconnect outside garden hoses, and seal foundation cracks that let arctic air freeze pipes in crawlspaces.

The following steps can also prove valuable:

• Open cabinet doors to allow heat to get to piping under sinks and vanities near exterior walls.
• Run a small trickle of water from hot and cold faucets during extreme cold.
• Keep exterior doors to unheated spaces closed as much as possible during winter months.
• If you plan to be away for an extended period have the water system professionally drained.
• If you are taking a short trip, ask a neighbor to check the house regularly during severe cold spells. Discovering a burst pipe or water leak quickly can prevent excessive damage.
• Install a whole house water leak detection system. For a list of manufacturers visit: http://www.statefarm.com/learning/loss_prevent/learning_loss_water_leak_det_system.asp
• If you own a business that will be unoccupied for more than 24 hours at a time make arrangements to have the building inspected once a day during winter. Quickly discovering a burst pipe or water leak can prevent excessive damage.

Dale Bader/Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

A VERY COLD START TO 2010

There is little to add to that.  A weather pattern that will bring morning lows in the teens and afternoon highs in the 30s.  There is a slight chance a storm system will move across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday and Thursday morning that could bring some light snow to the Tennessee Valley.  As that storm unveils itself this week, we’ll let you know how much or if any snow will fall in the Tennessee Valley.

 Remain Weather Aware, check the 7-Day Forecast for Details, and follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on facebook as well.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31