This winter’s weather pattern across the southeastern United States will be strongly influenced by the affects of El Nino. El Nino is a warming of Pacific equatorial waters that aides in enhancing the southern jet stream which moves across the southern U.S. It helps to bring increased precipitation from California to Florida and also aides in providing cooler than normal conditions for most of the southeastern U.S.

 Here is a current look at the water temperature annomolies in the equitorial Pacific.

All El Niños are not the same and the above information is the average. To help predict the 2009-10 winter season comparisons have been made with several previous El Niños of similar current and forecast strength. In addition, several additional variables have been compared and reviewed and some of these include the current and forecast Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values and the Multivariate ENSO Index. This information has provided the following previous winter seasons as reference: 1957-58, 1963-64, 1976-77 and 2002-03. Each year was given a weighted value and when placed in weighted value the reference years were aligned as: 1957-58, 2002-03, 1976-77, 1963-64.

You may be asking yourself, “What were these winters like?” Well, here is some information regarding them.

1957-58

Notes:

December was generally mild with only one cold spell that lasted only 2 days with one day having a high of only 25 degrees a morning low of 8 degrees. January was cool but would not have seemed extreme with highs generally in the low to mid 40s for much of the month. 5 days saw highs only in the 30s and an equal number of days dropped into the teens for lows with the coldest morning reaching 13. The February average maximum temperature is 54 degrees but in February 1958 the average maximum temperature was only 44 degrees. 15 days saw highs of 39 degrees or less with coldest day time high being 19 degrees on the 16^th followed by a morning low of -8 degrees on the 17^th. All 8” of snow fell in a single event.

1963-64

Notes:

December of 1963 saw 11 out of 12 days with daily maximum temperatures in the 30s and this stretch occurred midmonth. During this cold stretch minimum daily temperatures reached into the teens 8 times with the coldest being 10 degrees on the 19^th.  Snow fell on 7 separate days with 4” falling on the 22^nd, 1.5” on the 23^rd and 15.7 on the 31^st. January was a relatively mild month with a brief cool spell to start out the month and again mid-month. Snow continued to fall from New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day with 1.4” falling. Snow will occur again another 4 times during the month with only an additional 0.3” of accumulation. February was relatively uneventful but snow did occur on 5 separate days.

1976-77

Notes:

December of 1976 saw four days with maximum daily highs of less than 40 degrees with the coolest being 29 on the 21^st. The pattern began to turn colder and more active the last two days of the month. The minimum daily temperature on New Year’s Eve was 8 degrees. In addition a trace of snow fell on both the 30^th and 31^st.  January 1977 was quite chilly with the coldest period being the 17^th-19^th when daily maximum temperatures were in the 20s and minimum daily temperatures were in the single digets, In fact, on the 17^th, the minimum temperature was -1 degrees.  Snow fell on 10 different occurrences, too. February had two minor and brief cool spells but has an early taste of Spring, late month, when temperatures rose into the 70s three times. A trace of snow fell only once.

2002-03

Notes:

December of 2002 was not very exciting with nothing special to note except on morning did drop to 19 degrees and one day saw a trace of snowfall. January saw temperatures that were below normal but nothing extreme. Snow fell on 7 separate days but all but one just saw a trace.  Like January, nothing extreme to really note. Snow fell on two separate days.

Here is a map just simply compiling the four winter seasons together regarding temperatures for the entire U.S.

So here is the official Storm Force 31 Winter Forecast:

 Now if you are interested, here is how the Fall Outlook verified.  How did the Storm Force 31 Team Do?

 September

October

November

The World’s Most Advanced Weather Display Technology

Sunday Night, Storm Force 31 introduced OMNI Max in the WAAY-31 Special Report, Remembering the 1989 Tornado.  During this special report, we talked to many people who were affected by the tornado in numerous ways, from victims and their families to meteorologists who changed their futures that night.

At the same time, we debuted Storm Force 31 OMNI Max, and showed the Tennessee Valley the future of weather presentations.  In doing so, we have raised the bar, as we have always done at WAAY-31, in local weather coverage.  First in Lightning Detection Display, First in Live Doppler Radar, First in VIPIR, First and Exclusive in CALLING YOU when the storms threaten, and now First in Alabama and the Tennessee Valley, and only the 5th broadcast facility in the WORLD to display the weather through Huntsville’s Baron Services OMNI Max weather platform.

Click here to see the debut of OMNI Max.

Stay tuned to Storm Force 31 and WAAY-31 News and watch us grow into OMNI Max, the Weather Platform of Our Future.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Around 4:30 pm on Wednesday, November 15, 1989, a tornado touched down near Madkin Mountain on Redstone Arsenal, southwest of Huntsville. The tornado moved northeast towards the heavily-populated Airport Road area, where it would destroy or damage 80 businesses, 3 churches, a dozen apartment buildings, and more than 1,000 cars. It moved on, climbing over Garth Mountain, demolishing Jones Valley Elementary School, and destroying 259 homes in the Jones Valley area. The tornado then moved out into eastern Madison County, where it damaged the equipment and maintenance headquarters of Commission District 2 as well as a state forestry office, destroyed 3 more homes, a volunteer fire department, several barns and sheds, and numerous electrical towers.

National Weather Service

All told, the tornado killed 21 people and injured 463. Rated an F4 on the Fujita Scale, it inflicted approximately $250 million in damage. (info obtained from National Weather Service-Huntsville website)

WAAY 31 will be looking back and remembering the events of that day on a very special edition of WAAY 31 Weekend News at 10 PM, Sunday, November 15, 2009. You can also take a look back at the events that evolved 20 years ago by clicking here and viewing historic video and news footage from WAAY 31. In addition, the Storm Force 31 weather team will be looking forward by debuting the latest in weather technology. They will also be providing you with a completely new perspective on the weather.  Make sure you tune in!

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Ida Started the Week, Perfection ENDS It!

A weekend to write home about.  So go ahead, grab the pen and paper, and get busy.  Of course I hate to tell you you could spend a few more minutes and blog home about it.

I’d live to write a big, long blustery write-up regarding the wonderful weekend weather coming our way.  But if I did I’d be wasting your time and mine, and keep us both from enjoying an amazing weekend.

Submitted by blainer@fpunet.com

But, watch Sunday night, WAAY-31 News at 10 pm for weather technology that is a FIRST in the Tennessee Valley.  On the 20th Anniversary of the November 15th Tornado of 1989, Storm Force 31 will unveil weather technology that will have you sitting in your chair, amazed at what is happening before your eyes.  A FIRST in Alabama and only the FIFTH of its kind in the world.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

(Remember, Tropical Storms are NOT Gendered, but Objects)

When people call tropical storms ‘he’s and she’s’, it drives me NUTS.  Which i sexactly why I titled this blog post the way I did.  Now THAT is behind me,

As the rains built north of the landfalling tropical storm, computer forecast models forecast the showers to be the heaviest in in Eastern Alabama and Western Georgia.  But, with an approaching storm system in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and abundant moisture being sent sprawling across Alabama, the rains came and came heavily in parts of Central and North Alabama.

The rains fell, as you can see, heavier in these parts of the state than they did along the shore where the tropical storm moved ashore.  This is an odd occurance for a tropical system.

The rainfall totals, though heavier just to the south of the Tennessee Valley,  were much heavier than the expected 1-2″ in North Central Alabama, but were about as expected in the Shoals (1/4 to 3/4″) and slightly less than expected in Northeast Alabama (1-2″).

Click here to see the my rainfall report from  WAAY-31 News at 6pm the night of the storm’s landfall.

It does indeed seem each of these storms have surprises everytime they move inland.  This time, the surprise was on us.

Brad Huffines,  Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

A  Timeline

Hurricane Ida will move across warm Gulf of Mexico waters on Monday; however, these waters will be cooler than those near the Yucatan and Cuba where she reintensified into a hurricane. As a result, she will likely weaken some as she approaches the AL/MS Gulf Coast. She will likely make landfall in between Gulfport, MS and Ft. Walton Beach, Florida late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning.

As Ida approaches, the weather in the Valley will begin to slide downhill rather quickly. Rain will likely occur for our viewers south of the Tennessee River between 10 PM and Midnight, especially from Cullman County-DeKalb County. The rain will initially be lighter and more showery in nature.

 Rain will spread from the south-southeast to the north-northwest making a slow progression into Huntsville and the Shoals. Rain will likely move into the Huntsville Metro area between 3 AM and 5 AM, and between 5 AM and 7 AM for the Shoals, just in enough time for the morning commute.

Periods of heavy rain, especially from I-65 eastward, is likely through the day on Tuesday.

As the rains begin, the wind will begin to intensify, too. I am expecting winds between 10-20 MPH from the east Monday night through early Tuesday. As Tuesday wears on, the winds will intensify even further to 20-30 MPH from the east-northeast. Those living on mountain tops could even see winds Tuesday afternoon as high as 40 MPH!

This system as the potential of signficant rainfall with 2″-4″ possible along and east of I-65 and 1″-2″ west of I-65. The heaviest will likely fall from Cullman County-Marshall County-DeKalb County where isolated amounts of 4+” will be possible.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Cotton Delayed and Lower Quality Because of Recent Weather

Tonight, WAAY-31’s Haley Baker reported on the way the recent weather has affected our local cotton crop.  With Madison County, AL, being the state’s largest county producer of Cotton, a bad year for Cotton affects us all.

The National Cotton Council is a great source of information on the nation’s cotton crops and economy of the cotton industry.  The link I have posted above shows the current statistics regarding the nation’s cotton harvest.  However, the information I have pulled from that link is summarized both in the enclosed graphics as well as in my weather follow-up to our news story from WAAY-31 News at 6pm.

TO SEE THE VIDEO, CLICK HERE TO OPEN THE VIDEO OF THE REPORT. 

Overall Alabama’s weather for the next 10 days looks fairly good for the harvesting of our cotton, but any period of rains will slow that process.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Here is another interesting story from our neighbors in the Valley at Marshall Space Flight Center.

Evidence for a thin veil of carbon has been found on the neutron star in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant. This discovery, made with NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory, resolves a 10-year mystery surrounding this object.

“The compact star at the center of this famous supernova remnant has been an enigma since its discovery,” said Wynn Ho of the University of Southampton and lead author of a paper that appears in the latest issue of Nature. “Now we finally understand that it can be produced by a hot neutron star with a carbon atmosphere.”

By analyzing Chandra’s X-ray spectrum – akin to a fingerprint of energy – and applying it to theoretical models, Ho and his colleague Craig Heinke, from the University of Alberta, determined that the neutron star in Cassiopeia A, or Cas A for short, has an ultra-thin coating of carbon. This is the first time the composition of an atmosphere of an isolated neutron star has been confirmed.

The Chandra “First Light” image of Cas A in 1999 revealed a previously undetected point-like source of X-rays at the center. This object was presumed to be a neutron star, the typical remnant of an exploded star, but researchers were unable to understand its properties. Defying astronomers’ expectations, this object did not show any X-ray or radio pulsations or any signs of radio pulsar activity.

NASA

By applying a model of a neutron star with a carbon atmosphere to this object, Ho and Heinke found that the region emitting X-rays would uniformly cover a typical neutron star.

This would explain the lack of X-ray pulsations because — like a lightbulb that shines consistently in all directions — this neutron star would be unlikely to display any changes in its intensity as it rotates.

Scientists previously have used a neutron star model with a hydrogen atmosphere giving a much smaller emission area, corresponding to a hot spot on a typical neutron star, which should produce X-ray pulsations as it rotates. Interpreting the hydrogen atmosphere model without pulsations would require a tiny size, consistent only with exotic stars made of strange quark matter.

“Our carbon veil solves one of the big questions about the neutron star in Cas A,” said Craig Heinke. “People have been willing to consider some weird explanations, so it’s a relief to discover a less peculiar solution.”

Unlike most astronomical objects, neutron stars are small enough to understand on a human scale. For example, neutron stars typically have a diameter of about 14 miles, only slightly longer than a half-marathon. The atmosphere of a neutron star is on an even smaller scale. The researchers calculate that the carbon atmosphere is only about 4 inches thick, because it has been compressed by a surface gravity that is 100 billion times stronger than on Earth.

“For people who are used to hearing about immense sizes of things in space, it might be a surprise that we can study something so small,” said Ho. “It’s also funny to think that such a thin veil over this star played a key role in frustrating researchers.”

In Earth’s time frame, the estimated age of the neutron star in Cas A is only several hundred years, making it about ten times younger than other neutron stars with detected surface emission. Therefore, the Cas A neutron star gives a unique window into the early life of a cooling neutron star.

The carbon itself comes from a combination of material that has fallen back after the supernova, and nuclear reactions on the hot surface of the neutron star which convert hydrogen and helium into carbon.

The X-ray spectrum and lack of pulsar activity suggest that the magnetic field on the surface of this neutron star is relatively weak. Similarly low magnetic fields are implied for several other young neutron stars by study of their weak X-ray pulsations. It is not known whether these neutron stars will have low magnetic fields for their entire lives, and never become radio pulsars, or whether processes in their interior will lead to the development of stronger magnetic fields as they age.

NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., manages the Chandra program for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory controls Chandra’s science and flight operations from Cambridge, Mass.

More information, including images and other multimedia, can be found
at: http://chandra.harvard.edu and http://chandra.nasa.gov

Information for this post provided in full from Marshall Space Flight Center

Dale Bader, Meteorologist/Storm Force 31

pix@waaytv.com, Subject: FALL

As you are out and about this autumn and taking pictures of the scenery in NorthAlabama and Southern Middle Tennessee, many of you have chosen to share with us some of those images.  The pictures below are just 3 of those gorgeous images.  Periodically, I will be picking some of them out to share with the viewers of WAAY-31 News.  These three pictures below were used during a weathercast Monday, November 2, 2009.

Some gorgeous pictures in deed.  But you have some in your camera or cell phone RIGHT NOW that you can share with us.  So please do!  So send them to pix@waaytv.com, and if you want to, sign up for a free membership  at http://mywaay.waaytv.com.

I look forward to seeing your submissions!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorolgst / Storm Force 31