The Plot Thickens… I LOVE a Good Thriller

The primary threat for widespread severe weather passing as of this writing, but there remains a chance for flash flooding in flood prone areas mostly south of the Tennessee River, and mostly in a line from Haleyville to Cullman to Arab to Centre and south.  Residents near streams and creeks, be prepared for flooding as the heavy rains runoff in those areas the next 24 to 48 hours.  Parts of Winston, Cullman, Blount, Etowah and Cherokee Counties have seen between 2 and 3 inches of rain.   The Doppler radar rainfall estimate graphic below is likely between 10 to 20% too high in certain areas, but is an overall very accurate representative of where the heaviest rains have fallen on Friday.

As rains and thunderstorms bring some gusty winds and small hail to isolated areas of the Tennessee Valley overnight into early morning Saturday, some light rain and drizzle continues again as temperatures climb a little and then fall a lot during the late morning and early afternoon.  THEN, the plot thickens.

A last round of precipitation will begin as potentially either rain or a rain/snow mix in West Tennessee then drop through much of the Tennessee Valley as a snow producer.  Will we see accumulations, you ask?  Yes.  Could parts of the valley, especially North Central, Northeast Alabama, and Southern Middle Tennessee see inches and more?  Yes.

I think that as the computer models continue to forecast the storm system which will affect us to move further west, that will mean that the snow chances rise to our west, and fall in north central and northeast Alabama.  My new total forecast, as of 11pm Friday Night, is 1-3″ west of Savannah, TN, Florence, AL, and Russellville, AL.  A Trace to 2″ is possible from that line to I-65(ish) and a trace to 1″ possible east of I-65.

So, no matter what I said, I know you’ll be breaking out your rusty sleds, buying bread, eggs, and milk like mad, and accusing me of investing in these commodities.  I should have.

Keep checking the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Reminding You to Be Weather Aware in Our Busy Season

Each year, the National Weather Service local forecast offices with the help of state and local emergency management offices proclaim a week in the late Winter as Severe Weather Awareness Week.  During this week, media sources are urged to keep this week in the forefront of the minds of residents in traditionally hard-hit areas of the country.

Monday: Thunderstorms & Damaging Winds

Tuesday: Lightning Safety

Wednesday: Tornado Safety

Thursday: Flooding Safety

Friday: NOAA Weather Radio

I want to place this link on this blog that will allow you to have a one-click stop for Severe Weather Awareness Week information.

Bottom Line Preparedness Reminders:

If you have not done so already, this is the time of the year to check your preparedness plans.

And keep WAAY-TV and waaytv.com close at hand for the most up to date weather information and most accurate forecasts in the Tennessee Valley.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

 A Busy Wednesday Begins Our Change

Strong to severe thunderstorms passing across the Tennessee Valley early Wednesday morning and into Wednesday afternoon brought some areas of scattered wind damage and numerous reports of up to 1/2″ size hail in parts of the Tennessee Valley.  And after having tied two record highs in Huntsville (75) and Muscle Shoals (76), there was plenty of energy to feed the strong thunderstorms that have moved across the Tennessee Valley and the rest of Alabama.

Next up, after some cold weather Thursday and Friday, is an Alberta Clipper that will sweep across the Plains into the Southeast with a few showers Saturday that might change over briefly into a few areas of light snow Saturday Night and early Sunday Morning.  The only chances for light accumulations will remain across the highest elevations of Southern Middle Tennessee and Northeast Alabama.

THEN… pant, pant, pant… after highs struggle to reach 40 on Sunday, we’ll see warming temperatures with another chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Keep checking the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Even Though It Is the Middle of Winter

There are two definitions of winter.  The astronomical definition and the meteorological definition. The astronomical definition of winter defines its end at the moment of the Vernal Equinox.  The meteorological definition is from December 1 to March 1, which corresponds to the dates of the coldest temperatures on average in the Northern Hemisphere.  WAAY-31 director Brian Holcomb took a picture of a blooming daffodil in his backyard this weekend and shared it with me this afternoon.

So, whether this blooming flower is damaged by the freezing mornings coming this weekend or not, it did have the courage to spill itself past the walls of its bud to show its beauty before another spell of freezing weather.  And for that we are thankful.

And speaking of Drought… I know… we weren’t… anyway… the Tennessee Valley, in its Jekyll and Hyde weather patterns, after having seen drought breaking rains in December and early January, has just scored the SECOND DRIEST Jan 15 to Feb 16 period for Huntsville, and the THIRD DRIEST period for Muscle Shoals.  EXTRA EXTRA READ ALL ABOUT IT RIGHT HERE, at the UAH/NSSTC Collaborative Blog, in a post put together by National Weather Service Meteorologist Andy Kula.  I am sick and tired of the ‘D’ word, after having recently ended 3 1/2 years of drought.  What I am HOPING is that the Drought HAS ended, and not just taken a brief break.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Warmer Weather First, THEN Back to the 40s 

High temperatures stayed near and slightly under 50 degrees on Monday, but with a gorgeous sunny sky, it looked much warmer outside than it actually was.  When you stepped outside, you felt the chill immediately.  The good news, sunny skies start Tuesday with high temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 50s.  BUT, rain starts a weather change that moves in and takes a long weekend break in the Tennessee Valley.  A break for Winter, NOT for US.

Showers start off Wednesday before the temperatures climb briefly into the 60s with a few thunderstorms mixing in.  There is a chance for strong gusty winds during the storms, with a storm or two perhaps reaching severe limits.

Then the Chilly Weather settles in.  But please remember, that I am just the messenger, number ONE, and number TWO, we are starting the final third of W-I-N-T-E-R, which will explain several mornings back below freezing.  And I am not ruling out a chance for a snow flurry or two Saturday and Sunday if the ’stars align’.  Snow forecasting in the Tennessee Valley is not the best habit to undertake.  “Never forecast snow until you see the first flake.”  So keep that in mind.

Keep checking the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Dale Bader, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Morning Sun Changing to Midnight Rain

A fairly weak storm system will press its way eastward through the Tennessee Valley on Saturday morning.  In advance of that system the clouds will increase throughout the day with the chance that before midnight, some of us might see some light rain.  More broad showers will move in to parts of the Tennessee Valley overnight and into Saturday morning, but not a lot of rain will total up as it all moves through.  We’ll likely see the sunset on Saturday afternoon behind this system.

On Sunday, more clouds will thicken with a few more sprinkles possible with cooler temperatures settling in Sunday afternoon into Monday, when highs will only reach the lower 50s.  The coldest morning of this ’spell’ will be Tuesday with morning lows near freezing.  By Wednesday a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be revisiting the Valley with the arrival of more cool air toward the end of next week.

Keep checking the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

You are RIGHT.  It WAS a Bit Breezy This Afternoon!

These are the accumulated peak wind gusts collected by the National Weather Service in Huntsville this afternoon.  The gusty winds were responsible for scattered areas of damage and some power outages.  They were also responsible for the damage in the picture below.

The damage below was an image sent us by Sharon Prince of Huntland.  It shows debris from the Huntland High School Gym as it was strewn across the parking lot.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

900 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

...GUSTY WINDS AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES ON

WEDNESDAY...CAUSING HIGH WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN

MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPED ALONG A DRY LINE

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MOVED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE

AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SPORADIC

WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LINE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS

CAUSED ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF NOTABLE PEAK WIND GUSTS REPORTED AT VARIOUS

WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS THE NWS HUNTSVILLE CWA.

/LOCATION/             /COUNTY/     /PEAK GUST (MPH)/  /NETWORK/

CHEROKEE               COLBERT            62           SPOTTER

MONTE SANO MOUNTAIN    MADISON            58           MESONET/APRS

FLORENCE               LAUDERDALE         54           COOP/COCORAHS

WINCHESTER AIRPORT     FRANKLIN TN        54           AWOS

MUSCLE SHOALS          COLBERT            52           ASOS

ATHENS INTRMDT. SCHOOL LIMESTONE          48           MESONET/MEDIA

NEW MARKET             MADISON            48           MESONET/MEDIA

PRYOR FIELD            LIMESTONE          48           ASOS

WINCHESTER PSC         FRANKLIN TN        48           MESONET/MEDIA

FLORENCE/WILSON SCHOOL LAUDERDALE         46           MESONET/MEDIA

HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT     MADISON            46           ASOS

ALBERTVILLE            MARSHALL           46           AWOS

HAZEL GREEN            MADISON            45           MESONET/SCAN

PARK CITY              LINCOLN            45           AWOS

SARDIS SPRINGS         LIMESTONE          45           MESONET/SCAN

BELVIDERE              FRANKLIN TN        44           MESONET/SCAN

DECATUR/BROOKHAVEN     MORGAN             44           MESONET/MEDIA

EAST LIMESTONE         LIMESTONE          44           MESONET/MEDIA

MERIDIANVILLE          MADISON            44           AWOS

MOULTON/CO SOIL WATER  LAWRENCE           44           MESONET/MEDIA

ARDMORE                LIMESTONE          43           MESONET/MEDIA

FAYETTEVILLE           LINCOLN            43           MESONET/MEDIA

HAMPTON COVE           MADISON            43           MESONET/MEDIA

HUNTSVILLE/AAMU        MADISON            43           MESONET/MEDIA

VINEMONT/CULLMAN ARPT  CULLMAN            43           AWOS

MADISON/BOB JONES HS   MADISON            42           MESONET/MEDIA

COURTLAND              LAWRENCE           40           COOP-M/HCN

MOULTON ELEMENTARY     LAWRENCE           40           MESONET/MEDIA

UAH/NSSTC/NWS HUN      MADISON            40           UAH BERM

NOTES:

*CHEROKEE AL WIND GUST MEASURED ON ANEMOMETER BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

*ONLY ASOS SITES ARE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE. OTHER SITES MAY NOT RECEIVE PROPER EXPOSURE OR ARE

INSTALLED AT NON-STANDARD HEIGHTS AND MAY NOT REFLECT OFFICIAL (10

METER) WIND SPEEDS.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

4279.

 Four THOUSAND two hundred seventy nine.

 When the severe thunderstorm warnings began, that is the number of phone calls successfully made by the computers in our WeatherCall system.  Remember, that this does NOT include the large number of subscribers who have opted OUT from the Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in their specific WeatherCall accounts, since NO tornado warnings were issued.  WeatherCall allows you, unlike NOAA Weather Radio, allows you to tell WeatherCall when to call you, and when NOT to call you.  Many of you were worn out by your Weather Radios today.  If that bothers you, you NEED WeatherCall.

What does this mean.  Over FOUR THOUSAND phone calls were made to individual telephones when severe thunderstorm warnings were issued in the Tennessee Valley telling people safety information and reminding people to be on guard for what could become dangerous weather.  Telling people the get the children and pets secure since damaging winds and flash flooding were potentially on their doorstep.  Telling people of a danger from something of which they may have been unaware as they are living their day to day lives, working their day to day chores.

Gentle Reminders.  WeatherCall nudges you when you may be busy doing other things to remind you to stay on your toes until the danger of a severe thunderstorm has passed.

4279.  If you are a WeatherCall subscriber, send this email to others in the Tennessee Valley and tell them what this service means to you.  Let’s make that number 20,000 in a year.  50,000 in 2 years.  The more we can call people when they are in danger, the safeer we will all be.

WAAY-31 WeatherCall.  $6.95 does buy piece of mind, and it could save your life.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

 A Risk for Severe Weather Remains on Wednesday

When temperatures rise into the 70s in February, they are usually not breaking record highs, but are close. So when you are talking about temperatures near the warmest they have been in generations, it does not take much moisture and upper level cold air to cause strong to severe thunderstorms.  Though the atmospheric dynamics are not pointing toward an historic outbreak, it does mean we will likely have to face down a strong to severe line of thunderstorms along or ahead of a weak cold front Wednesday.  If any thunderstorms form ahead of the line itself, those storms could become so-called ’supercells’, which are expecially dangerous when it comes to tornadoes. In lines of storms, tornadoes are less common, but smaller, short lived tornadoes are possible in squall line thunderstorms.

Following that line of thunderstorms, slightly cooler air will settle in for a couple days before a stronger cold front with a LESS strong upper level pool of cold air may also stir the atmosphere to the point of creating widespread showers and a few stronger thunderstorms as well.

Behind that cold front, temperatures will struggle to rise into the 40s Saturday and 50s for Sunday.

In the mean time, read about and purchase Storm Force 31’s WeatherCall.  It buys piece of mind that could save your life.

Keep checking the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31