The Legend of Groundhog Day

Every February 2^nd we celebrate Groundhog Day. Do you really know why and how this tradition came about?

The exact origins of Groundhog Day are not truly known. However, it is believed to have come about as a form of recognizing Candlemas Day, which has origins back to the pagan celebration of Imbolc. This day came in between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox or around February 2^nd. According to original custom and folklore, if “the weather was fair and clear, there would be two winters in the year.” For early European Christians, Candlemas Day celebrated the Feast of the Presentation of Jesus at the Temple and the custom of the day was for clergy to bless candles and distribute them in the middle of winter.

How and when the groundhog was brought into the picture is unclear but there is some thought that a groundhog was chosen due to the belief that it is a timid creature whom would be scared by his own shadow. The earliest reference to Groundhog Day occurred in a passage of James Morris’ diary, February 4, 1841, “Last Tuesday, the 2^nd, was Candlemas Day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate.”

According to an old German saying,

For as the sun shines on Candlemas Day,

So far will the snow swirl until May.

For as the snow blows on Candlemas Day,

So far will the sun shine before May.

came our current folklore belief of,

If the ground hog sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter weather.

If he does not see his shadow, there will be an early spring.

The best known groundhog forecaster is Punxsutawney Phil. Punxsutawney is located in Pennsylvania. The first official celebration of Punxsutawney Phil was made on February 2, 1887. Today, there are several famous groundhog forecasters including Birmingham Bill, our nearest furry forecaster. If you would like to be present when Birmingham Bill makes his 2009 forecast, you can do so by visiting the Birmingham Zoo on Monday at 10 AM at the Wildlife Stage.

So will our furry forecaster see his shadow or not? Based on the current forecast, likely not, meaning spring is around the corner. Or is it?

Be sure to continue to watch WAAY 31 or continue to visit our website for the latest forecast detais.

Dale Bader, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

2009 Huntsville Boat Show

WAAY 31 was a proud sponsor of this year’s Huntsville Boat Show. Many of your favorite personalities were there to meet you and sign autographs. Thank you to those who stopped by the WAAY 31 booth and said hello. It was great to meet you!

It was nice for my wife, Jennifer, and 13-month old twins, Addie and Alex, to explore the boat show, have fun, and meet the WAAY family.

Dale Bader, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

January 23^rd marked the Anniversary for the World Record 24-HR Temperature Variation

In the TN Valley it is difficult to see more than a 40 degree temperature variation within a 24 hour time period. However, in Montana and locations along the Rocky Mountains temperatures can change rapidly in a very quick time frame and variations within a 24-hour time period can easily exceed 60 degrees or more.  Temperature deviation refers to the change in the number of degrees over a 24 –hour period; such as the number of degrees between a minimum and a maximum temperature for a location.  For example, if Huntsville had a minimum temperature of 30^o and a maximum temperature of 50 ^o  the deviation for the day would be 20 ^o.

Yesterday, January 23^rd, marked the anniversary of the largest recorded 24-hour variation in temperature, 100 degrees! This occurred in Browning, Montana in 1916.  Browning, MT is located in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains in northwest Montana near Glacier National Park.  Temperatures began that day at 44 ^o and ended the day at -56 ^o. What a drop!

Luckily for us in the TN Valley, we are not going to see anything close to that any time soon. Instead, temperatures will generally be near to a bit above normal over the next week. The normal daily deviation for the TN Valley for this week is 20 ^o and over the next week the average daily deviation will be around 15 ^o. Fortunately, this is not even close to the record set above.

Dale Bader, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Temperatures to Reach Near 60 Degrees

The weather pattern is beginning to ease and the core of the cold air is moving northeast into New England. At the same time, temperatures have been warming this week across the Plains States southward  into Texas. This warmth will be spreading eastward across the southern United States Thursday and Friday. On Friday, temperatures in the TN Valley will reach near 60 degrees!

A cold front will pass through the region on Saturday morning and with it will be a few showers and cooler temperatures. Temperatures over the weekend will be seasonal with afternoon temperatures in the 40s. If you are planning on attending the 2009 Huntsville Boat Show at the Von Braun Center this weekend, have  an umbrella ready for the first part of Saturday, otherwise it is expected to be dry. Additionally, it will be chilly so make sure to take along a jacket or coat.

Dale Bader, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

 Warmer Times are on their Way

Over the past nine days, daily temperatures have averaged 7 degrees below normal. During this stretch of time, Sunday was the only day to see above normal temperatures. For the rest of the  stretch the TN Valley has seen below normal temperatures with the most extreme day being last Friday, the 16^th, with temperatures 22 degrees below. Now, it is time to swing the pendulum the other direction with a prolonged stretch of normal to above normal temperatures. But first, we will have to get through one more chilly day.

During this period of chill The Valley even saw some snow showers and flurries.  Much of the region along and east of I-65 saw snow showers yesterday and today most of the snow showers and flurries have been confined to Franklin County, TN southward through Jackson and De Kalb counties in AL.  These locations, especially the higher elevations,  of Franklin County, TN; Jackson County, AL; and De Kalb County, AL have seen a dusting to around ½” of snow the past couple of days. Even Monte Sano, in Madison County, saw a dusting of snow on Monday. Below is a picture provided  from  viewer, Heather Bookout, of a young girl having fun on top of Monte Sano, yesterday, during the snow showers and also an image collected from Sewanee, The University of the South’s webcam in Sewanee, TN.

Wednesday will be last truly chilly day for the next 7-days. Temperatures Wednesday morning will drop into the upper teens to near 20 and then warm to near 40 degrees for an afternoon high temperature. This will allow for one more below normal day for the Valley.

Today, warmth was building across the Plains and Texas.  Sixty degree temperatures stretched from western SD southward into TX.  For example, Rapid City, SD made it into the 60s, nearly 50 degrees warmer than one week ago. This warmth will continue to build tomorrow and begin spreading eastward. It will make its way into the TN Valley on Thursday and by Friday we will likely see temperatures near 60 degrees, too.

Dale Bader, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Why did some of us in the Valley see Rain, others Sleet and some Freezing Rain?

The extreme cold that arrived into the TN Valley earlier this week originated over the Arctic. This allowed the air mass to become as cold as it was. Additionally, Arctic air is very dry and for that reason we did not see much in the way of any precipitation until today.

So why did we see any precipitation today? It was still cold, right?

Yes, it was still cold, relatively speaking, at the surface. Temperatures generally were in the 30s with a few 20s hanging on in the higher elevations of northeast AL. Unlike the past few days, though, the amount of moisture in the air was increasing and the airmass was no longer too dry to allow for precipitation to occur.

How do we know how much moisture is in the atmosphere?

This is where meteorologists look at the dew-point temperature. The dew-point temperature provides an accurate measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere at a set location. The higher the dew-point temperature the more moist the atmosphere is. For example, a dew-point temperature of -2, which we saw on Thursday, means the atmosphere is quite dry while a dew point of 60 indicates a moist atmosphere. Today, the dew-point temperature climbed into the 20s. Compared to the -2 seen on Thursday and part of Friday, the atmosphere was more moist today and more capable of producing light precipitation.

Besides the dew-point temperature rising and indicating a more moist atmosphere, a weak disturbance passed by in the upper levels of the atmosphere. As it did, it helped to increase the air temperature a few thousand feet above the surface to above the freezing temperature. This allowed the wintry mix of precipitation that occurred across the TN Valley this afternoon and evening.

But why did some of us see rain while others saw sleet or freezing rain?

This can be answered by looking in more detail at the air temperature from the surface to about 5000 feet above the surface. When the air temperature from the surface to about 5000′ is above freezing the entire distance, the precipitation type that falls is rain. If the surface temperature is below freezing but the air above it is above freezing, freezing rain occurs. Freezing rain is simply rain that falls and freezes on contact with a surface that is below freezing. Sleet occurs when the surface temperature is below freezing and the below freezing temperatures extend upward for at least several hundred feet before the air temperature climbs above freezing. Rain falls from the above freezing air into this wedge of cold, below freezing air near the surface and freezes into ice pellets and this is sleet. Snow occurs when from the ground to about 5000′ the temperature remains below freezing. Below is a graphic that helps illustrate this.

So the reason some of us in the Valley saw nothing more than rain is that the air was simply too warm from the surface all the way up to the clouds. The freezing rain occurred in parts of the Valley because the surface temperature remained below freezing while the air above the ground was warmer.  Finally, sleet occurred in a few spots because enough of a wedge of cold air was in place near the surface to refreeze rain into ice pellets.

Dale Bader, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31