Archive for November, 2008

Gray Skies on a Black Friday

Friday, November 28th, 2008

Fairly mild temperatures met early morning shoppers on this Black Friday in the Tennessee Valley.  For those waiting in line until some doors opened at 5 a.m., the temps were holding steady in the mid 40s.  Looks like most rain will hold off until the shopping frenzy is over.

For those of you planning to make the trip to Tuscaloosa on Saturday for the IronBowl, expect to leave in the rain.  As of now, the Tuscaloosa forecast calls for rain to be ending by kickoff time at 2:30, but a possible leftover shower and a soggy stadium remains likely.

                                

Another round of showers are possible on Sunday and Sunday night, with colder temperatures spilling in by Monday morning.  We can’t rule out the possibility of a frozen mix of precipitation early Monday.  So stay weather aware over the weekend and join Keller Watts, in his last weekend with the 31 StormForce team, for the latest details on our rapidly changing weather.

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

A Wonderful Thanksgiving

Wednesday, November 26th, 2008

But… (you guessed it)… Not So Great a Weekend

Happy Thanksgiving 2008

I spoke earlier in the week of computer models, their accuracy, differences, and the difficulties forecasting through many of these differences in weather forecast guidance.  However, what is getting clearer is a major cool down coming for the last half of the weekend, with the likelihood of rain and the possibilities of ‘mixed precipitation’ in the form of rain and possibly sleet and light snow before it starts to taper off.

Wednesday's Forecast Map

Thanksgiving first.  Beautiful  Wonderful.  Mid 60s.  Wow.

Saturday Forecast Map

Then the downturn starts Friday, wetter on Saturday, colder and wetter on Sunday and into Monday.  The colder air starts filtering in quickly on Saturday, and the weather Sunday and Monday can best be described as ‘ugly’.

Sunday's Southeast Forecast Map

And, oh, Happy Thanksgiving.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Warmer Thru Thanksgiving…

Tuesday, November 25th, 2008

… Then Things Become Murky

All modern day meteorologists use computer forecast models to forecast the weather.  These mathematical and models all have varying levels of emphasis put on different atmospheric parameters, such as humidity, temperature, air flow, and a plethora of greatly complex measured and mathematically derived weather data.  These models then output the data, and frequently the models agree.  Frequently they do not.  So when you hear a meteorologist say that there is lots of uncertainly in their forecast, it is because the models we use are straying from each other.

Atmospheric Modeling... Yes I studies this Stuff!

What is certain… a warming trend through Thanksgiving Day.  What is not… the weekend and into next work week.  Therefore, this forecast for the next few days will likely remain changeable until everything becomes more clear.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Chilly Tuesday…Milder Thanksgiving

Monday, November 24th, 2008

Some much needed rain moved through the Tennessee Valley on Monday, with clearing skies Monday night.  Morning temps were in upper 20s and low 30s as we expect dry conditions Tuesday, Wednesday and Thanksgiving Thursdsay.  Afternoon highs will start out in the low 50s with Thanksgiving warming up to the mid to upper 50s. 

The next round of rain is expected to develop late Friday into early Saturday with temps holding up to near seasonal averages.

Be sure to join us on channel 31 for the latest updates and any changes, if needed, during our Thanksgiving week.

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

A LESS Erratic Roller Coaster

Friday, November 21st, 2008

 AFTER a RECORD Cold Saturday

Clear skies.  Calm winds.  the two main ingredients to record cold temperatures.

Cold Morning After Radiational Cooling

Saturday morning will see both and therefore likely the third.  Radiational cooling at its best.

Warming Up BEHIND the High

THEN the warm-up.  Highs Saturday back to near 50, middle 50s Sunday and Monday, with a pretty good chance of rain Monday.  The temperatures in the middle layers in the atmosphere may be cold enough for the rain to start as or to become mixed with sleet.  WHile I expect no accumulations of sleet, the early morning sound of sleet on a tin roof in the middle of the night will make it VERY hard to get out of bed in the Shoals, where it will be most likely.

Sleet on a Cul de Sac

Following Monday’s showers, another warm-up is coming, with highs near 60 by Thanksgiving.  ‘Black Friday’, the shopping day following Thanksgiving, will likely see some rain, perhaps a thunderstorm, and a cooldown that will head into the weekend following.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines,  Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Staying Chilly THIS Week

Tuesday, November 18th, 2008

Until the Warmer Air Arrives for Our Holiday Week

Cold mornings, rather chilly afternoons have dominated the weather for the past several days, and will continue to keep us on the cool side through Saturday.  Then, when Sunday arrives, the warmer air will start to make a comeback in time for the Thanksgiving Holiday next week.

This Week's Jet Stream Flow

The shift in the upper level wind flow pattern will be responsible for the warm-up next week.  With the change in the Jet Stream flow, the weather will likely stay on the ‘average to warm’ side for the next several days after that.

Jet Stream Thanksgiving Day

If you will notice, the difference between these two maps is quite subtle for the Northeast and Northern Plains, but for the Southern Plains and the Southwest, it is fairly large.  Since we are going to be on that leading edge of change, the weekend weather NEXT weekend should also continue to warm back into the low 60s if this upper level pattern forecast comes true.  This could be quite a nice Holiday Weekend upcoming.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines,  Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Winter Weather Awareness Week

Monday, November 17th, 2008

Half the Battle is Being Prepared 

With colder weather here now to stay for the Fall and eventually winter season, it is time to start thinking about how you will be prepared to react to the wintery weather events that lie ahead of us in the Tennessee Valley.  Helping us do just that is some good and very pertinent information from the National Weather Service office in Huntsville.  Tim Troutman, the warnings coordination meteorologist in that office works very closely with local emergency management and media members to get the word out when we need to start thinking ahead.

Also, visit FEMA’s website regarding winter weather preparedness.  It is the most exhaustive source for good information on the web.

Greenhill, AL, February 2006

 From the Huntsville National Weather Service Office:

National Weather Service offices in Alabama and Tennessee, including NWS Huntsville, are conducting Winter Weather Awareness Week from Monday, November 17, through Wednesday, November 19, 2008. The purpose of this week is to call attention to the winter weather that we experience across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Yes we can and do get winter weather!

The winter of 2007-2008 was relatively mild and dry like the one before. December of 2007 was about 6 degrees above normal in Huntsville, with January returning closer to normal and February about one degree warmer than average. We recorded 0.6 inches of snow at the Huntsville International Airport on January 16 2008. A trace was recorded on the 13th, 26th and 27th of February 2008.

Those types of events may cause minor travel problems. However, the Tennessee Valley has experienced more significant winter storms in the past, such as:

The Tennessee Valley does experience winter weather–and now is the perfect time of the year to check your winter preparedness plans. Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio has fresh batteries in it. Make sure you have a means of receiving winter weather information, and be prepared in case you have no way to travel.

Example of Winter Preparedness Kit

Note: Some of the snowfall and ice accumulation criteria that prompt the issuance of winter weather advisories and warnings have changed across the Tennessee Valley. More information can be found here, including some recent product consolidations.

I hope you take time to think through your family’s plans regarding the upcoming winter season.  If you do take a few hours to prepare right now, you will be GLAD if one of the historic winter storms heads toward the Tennessee Valley putting 2008 into the weather headlines.  I have always said we either get a flake or two of snow or 8″ of ice and snow, and usually nothing in between.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

A Cold Monday…and Getting Colder

Monday, November 17th, 2008

A blast of cold air greeted the Tennessee Valley Monday with 33 degrees reported at 11:59 p.m. Sunday night.  By 6 a.m. temps were in the upper 20s and around 30 degrees across the area.  Another cold front was working through the valley during the day, which brought a band of cloudiness and even a few passing sprinkles.  Skies are expected to clear out Monday night making way for the next wave of colder air.  As you can see on the map below, a large area of strong high pressure will control our weather for the week ahead.  With another reinforcing cold front expected by Thursday, it will indeed be a long cold week.

…ALABAMA’S WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK IS TODAY THROUGH   
WEDNESDAY…NOVEMBER 19TH…  
 
FALL IS HERE…SO WINTER CAN’T BE FAR BEHIND. THE NATIONAL WEATHER   
SERVICE AND ALABAMA’S EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY WOULD LIKE TO   
BRING WINTER WEATHER THREATS TO THE FOREFRONT…AND HEIGHTEN   
EVERYONE’S AWARENESS TO THESE HAZARDS.   
   
..OUTLOOK
 
 
FIRST…A SHORT OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER. THIS YEAR…ALABAMA WILL BE  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEUTRAL CLIMATE PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT   
IN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY BY   
JANUARY…AND AT OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS PATTERN   
TAKING SHAPE…WE AN EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MILD   
WEATHER…INTERMINGLED WITH A FEW BRIEF TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER   
EVENTS…OR IN OTHER WORDS…A NEAR NORMAL WINTER IN ALABAMA.   
   
..WINTER TERMS
 
 
WIND CHILL…WIND CHILL IS BASED ON THE RATE OF HEAT LOSS FROM   
EXPOSED SKIN CAUSED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WIND AND COLD   
TEMPERATURES. AS THE WIND INCREASES…HEAT IS CARRIED AWAY FROM THE   
BODY AT AN ACCELERATED RATE…DRIVING DOWN THE BODY TEMPERATURE.   
ANIMALS ARE ALSO AFFECTED BY WIND CHILL. INANIMATE OBJECTS SUCH AS   
PIPES AND CAR RADIATORS ARE NOT AFFECTED. WHEN THE WIND CHILL   
APPROACHES MINUS 20 DEGREES…FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN 15 MINUTES OR   
LESS. DUE TO THE HAZARDS OF LOW WIND CHILL VALUES…THE NATIONAL   
WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHEN   
THE WIND CHILL FACTOR IS BETWEEN 0 DEGREES AND TEN DEGREES BELOW   
ZERO. A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL VALUE   
IS BELOW TEN DEGREES BELOW ZERO.   
 
FROSTBITE…FROSTBITE IS DAMAGE TO BODY TISSUE CAUSED BY TISSUE   
BEING FROZEN. FROSTBITE CAUSES THE LOSS OF FEELING AND A WHITE OR   
PALE APPEARANCE IN EXTREMITIES…SUCH AS FINGERS…TOES…EAR LOBES   
OR THE TIP OF THE NOSE. IF SYMPTOMS ARE DETECTED…SLOWLY WARM THE   
AFFECTED AREAS AND SEEK MEDICAL HELP IMMEDIATELY.   
 
HYPOTHERMIA…IS THE LOSS OF HEAT FROM THE BODY. WARNING SIGNS ARE   
UNCONTROLLABLE SHIVERING…MEMORY LOSS…AND DISTORTION. TREATMENT   
SHOULD BE SOUGHT IMMEDIATELY.   
 
WINTER STORM WATCH…ISSUED WHEN TWO OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS    
POSSIBLE IN A TWELVE HOUR TIME PERIOD OR FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW  
IS POSSIBLE IN A 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ALSO   
ISSUED WHEN AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR GREATER OF ICE IS ALSO   
POSSIBLE. THE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN EITHER THE ABOVE LISTED HEAVY   
SNOW OR ICE IS EXPECTED FROM 12 TO 36 HOURS IN THE FUTURE.   
 
WINTER STORM WARNING…ISSUED WHEN TWO OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS   
EXPECTED IN A TWELVE HOUR TIME PERIOD OR FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW   
IS POSSIBLE IN A 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ALSO   
ISSUED WHEN AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE   
FROM THE CURRENT TIME OUT TO AS MUCH AS 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE   
CURRENT TIME.    
 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WE WILL COVER MORE WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS   
AND HOW TO BETTER PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER.

Information from NWS and NOAA

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

Getting Set to CHILL OUT!

Friday, November 14th, 2008

Saturday Wind Chills in the 30s

The Friday Night cold front passing through the Tennessee Valley with rain and blustery winds will have a long-lasting effect, and is only the first of THREE cold fronts to keep us walking on the COOL side ALL week long.  There will be 6 straight mornings near and below freezing starting Sunday morning, with afternoon high temperatures bouncing from the 40s to the 50s, and back again, and again.

7 Days of FUN (If you Live Chilly Temps)

As far as precipitation is concerned, the cloudy skies will bring some light rain and drizzle on Saturday, followed by some scattered snow flurries in parts of the Tennessee Valley, mostly in Southern Middle Tennessee and the elevated parts of northeast Alabama, but I would NOT be surprised to hear of a few scattered flurries in other places in north Alabama.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Riding the A Train

Wednesday, November 12th, 2008

Colder Air Spreads In For the Weekend

The forecast remains on track this week with few changes from what we have expected since Monday, so the early week forecast gets a hearty ‘A’.  I love it when a plan comes together.

As the Fonz Would Say... AAAaaaaayy

Unsettled weather over the Southeast causing the rains has given scattered areas of rain and frankly few downpours to the Tennessee Valley, with the dynamic energy over the Southeast splitting, taking rains in higher amounts to the northwest and south of the Tennessee Valley.

On Friday, when we get our last threat for a shower of substance, the cold front will blast into the Tennessee Valley overnight and into Saturday morning, when temperatures will drop into the 40s in the morning, and then not climb OUT of the 40s during the afternoon with gusty winds and wind chills in the 30s by late afternoon.

A COLD Weekend Coming (For November) 

A light freeze in possible on Sunday morning with some frost as well, with another light freeze with frost possible on Monday morning.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Wet, But Not Wild…. Until the WEEKEND

Tuesday, November 11th, 2008

 … if You Consider a 25 Degree Drop ‘Wild’

Yes indeed, the cold front coming on Friday is delayed slightly, and because of that the chance of cold air rushing in to affect the precipitation’s changeover to snow flurries is lessened, but the colder weather is absolutely on the way.  Regardless of the drop in temperatures, it will again be another taste of the cold stuff again this weekend.

Arrival of Cool Weekend Temperatures

Before all that happens, the rains will fall on and off, with the heaviest total amounts in Northwest Alabama before the rains taper off Thursday evening.   There remains a slight chance for a shower on Friday along the leading edge of the cooldown, with a few areas of light rain possible on Saturday.

Showers and Wet Weather WED

I will say though, that this is a very DYNAMIC system, and worth watching.

Dynamic Weather Picture

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Alabama Winter Weather Awareness Week

Monday, November 10th, 2008

The National Weather Service and the Alabama Emergency Management Agency will observe the week of November 17-November 19, 2008, as Winter Weather Awareness Week in Alabama. 

In the past, winter weather has been a major cause of weather related deaths, injuries, and property damage in Alabama.

Before we get into the heart of this winter season, now is the time to prepare ourselves for the dangers and hazards associated with winter weather. Since the past several winter seasons have been relatively quiet, the need to reacquaint ourselves with winter weather safety is much higher.

                                   

Cold Winter Facts for Alabama

Alabama is no stranger to winter’s deadly grip.  Historically, severe winter weather conditions can affect some or all of the state. Alabama has been fortunate during the past several winters and has only experienced a few significant winter storm threats, primarily over northern portions of the state.

One of the most tragic outbreaks of cold weather in Alabama occurred January 10-18, 1982, when 20 people died and 300 were injured. 16,000 people were forced into emergency shelters and storm damage totaled 78 million dollars. The arctic outbreak of December 19-21, 1981, took the lives of at least 2 people in unheated homes and at least 17 people suffered injuries caused by slipping and falling on ice.

At least 5 people perished in the extreme cold of January 19-22, 1985, that rewrote low temperature records over much of Alabama. This storm brought ice accumulations up to one foot in Lauderdale County. Bridges were coated with ice well into Central Alabama and four people were killed in traffic accidents on icy roads.

An outbreak of severe cold occurred December 22 -25, 1989, killing five people in Alabama. Low temperatures for two consecutive nights dropped to the 0 to –5 degree range over the northern third of Alabama and into the single digits along the Gulf Coast. Daytime high temperatures reached only into the teens. Brisk northerly winds created wind chills ranging from 0 degrees to 15 degrees below zero across the entire state.

Just over 10 years ago in March, 1993, the state was held in the grip of record cold and snow. Much of the state was completely paralyzed when more than a foot of snow blanketed Central Alabama. The strong winds that accompanied the heavy, wet snow downed trees and power lines leaving many people without power for days. Record cold followed the snowfall from the “Storm of the Century”. Activities came to a halt for several days until the snow began to melt and emergency equipment could begin to clear the roadways. When it was over, 14 people had died and an unknown number of people were injured.  Property damage exceeded 50 million dollars. During the winter storm, the American Red Cross in Alabama sheltered over 12,000 people in 108 facilities and served over 36,000 meals.

                                              

Winter Storm Safety Rules

Check battery powered equipment. You may have to depend on a portable radio or TV for weather information. Also, check emergency cooking facilities and flashlights. Check your supply of heating fuel.

Check your food and stock an extra supply. Your supplies should include food that requires no cooking or refrigeration in case of power failures. Consider high energy foods such as dried fruit or candy.

Don’t forget prescription medicines, first aid supplies, and other specialty items. Prevent fire hazards due to overheated coal or oil burning stoves, fireplaces, heaters, or furnaces.

Remember, in winter storms, emergency equipment can be hampered by extreme weather conditions, too, and often can’t respond as quickly.

Stay indoors during storms and cold snaps , especially the elderly, small children, and others in bad health Avoid overexertion, especially when shoveling snow.

Make necessary trips for supplies before the storm develops. Arrange for emergency heat in case of power failure, which could last for several days.

Dress to fit the season. Wear layered, loose fitting clothing. Wear a hat, scarf, and mittens.

Winterize your home by caulking around openings, installing storm windows, and adding insulation.

Get your car winterized before the storm season begins. Maintain a checklist of the preparation required.

Keep water out of your fuel by keeping your gas tank full.

Carry a winter storm car kit, especially if you plan cross country travel or anticipate travel in northern states. Items to consider include a mobile phone and charger, blankets or sleeping bags, flashlights and batteries, first aid kit, non-perishable foods, extra clothing, window scraper, water, road maps, small shovel, and kitty litter or sand for traction.

If the storm exceeds or even tests your limitations, seek available shelter immediately. Plan your travel and select primary and alternate routes.

Check the latest weather information before departing, and drive carefully and defensively. Avoid traveling alone, and be sure someone knows your travel plans and route of travel.

Don’t forget your pets or livestock.  Move animals to sheltered areas. For pets, bring them indoors or provide some form of heat. Provide fresh water since many pets die from dehydration in winter storms.

Source:  National Weather Service & Alabama EMA

 Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

Remain Weather Aware Next Week

Friday, November 7th, 2008

Quite a Chilly Weekend Arriving

Showers that moved across the Tennessee Valley Friday morning and afternoon have continually pushed out west to east, leaving behind cooler days to come.

Saturday Night's Changing of the Guard

On Saturday and Sunday, a mix of clouds and sun with cool temperatures will greet you Saturday, while Sunday will start off a little cooler and remain cooler during the afternoon.  Monday will start a warm-up that will see temperatures return into the 60s, with some really active weather headed in for next week.

Sign Up HERE for WAAY-31 WeatherCall

Next week, there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley, so remain weather aware from Wednesday on, and sign-up your family and workplace for WeatherCall.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Another Day, Another Change

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

 After a Week of 70s’, You’ll Feel the Change

Showers and Thunderstorms are lining up along and ahead of a cold front moving into the Tennessee Valley tonight and into Friday.  With just enough Gulf Moisture, the storm system will deliver areas of scattered rain totals ranging from .10 to .5″ locally, with slightly higher amounts possible in any isolated thunderstorms that form within the larger areas of rain.

Friday Morning Forecast

Behind the front cooler air will filter in on Saturday, and even cooer air will arrive on Sunday.  There is a chance that some low clouds and light drizzle may visit on Saturday.  Where that occurs the temperatures will likely remain below the forecast high temperatures.

At the END of next week, there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley, so remain weather aware from Wednesday on, and sign-up your family and workplace for WeatherCall.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Follow the Dynamics, Follow the Storms

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

A DYNAMIC Change, Just Not for Us

Under the strongest upper level wind patterns exist the nation’s most troublesome weather.  Where cooler and warmer air clash, that is where the nation’s most troublesome severe thunderstorms form.  In the science of Meteorology, one of the sub-sciences is Atmospheric Dynamics, which is the highly mathematical study of theoretical weather and computer modeling.

 500 mb Upper Level Wind Analysis & Forecast

This is the area of weather forecasting that continues to grow by leaps and bounds.  But using computer modeling ang some of the basic upper level and surface weather patterns, you can usually tell yourself where the nation’s most dangerous weather will form.

Surface Forecast or Nov 5 Evening

For Wednesday Night and Thursday, look at how strong the upper level wind and pressure gradients are above the Plains heading into the Midwest.  Since highs were in the 70s just ahead of this storm system, and in the 40s behind, the nation’s most ‘dynamic’ weather will blow severe storms and isolated tornadoes from Oklahoma to Illinois.

Storm Prediction Center Storm outlook for Nov 5

Our weather will show change, much less dynamic, with highs in the 70s stepping down to the upper 60s Friday, and slowly falling to the upper 50s by Sunday.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31