While we are still feeling the effects of tropical storm FAY in the Tennessee Valley, another, more powerful, system has formed in the Atlantic.  In just 24 hours time, Gustav went from tropical depression to hurricane strength as of Tuesday morning.  Here is a positioning map courtesy of the National Hurricane Center:

The orange highlighted areas show medium potential of development of future tropical activity; the yellow area shows low potential.

Here is the latest forecast tracking map for Gustav:

Gustav is expected to gain strength from a category 1 storm to a category 2 storm within 24 hours.  Once, if it DOES get in the Gulf of Mexico, it could further strengthen.  Obviouisly, this storm deserves our attention.  We will be watching it !

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

At this writing, midday Monday, the remnants of former tropical storm FAY are moving into the Tennessee Valley.  The latest radar depiction is shown here:

A tornado watch will be in effect for north Alabama and south central Tennessee until 7 p.m. Monday.  A flash flood watch for the same areas goes into effect at 7 p.m. thru Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Stay tuned to channel 31 for any severe weather updates as are needed.

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

As of this writing early Sunday morning, tropical storm FAY’s outer rain bands are soaking parts of the Tennessee Valley, especially along and south of the Tennessee river.  If the center of this system follows the path outlined by Brad in the post below, we should see rain taper off during the day and then start to return early in the week, with the possibility of a shower at any time meanwhile.    The following is the latest statement from the national weather service in Huntsville:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

ALZ001>010-016-241700-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLORENCE…MUSCLE SHOALS…
RUSSELLVILLE…MOULTON…ATHENS…HUNTSVILLE…DECATUR…
GUNTERSVILLE…SCOTTSBORO…FORT PAYNE…CULLMAN
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

…OUTER RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY TO IMPACT NORTHERN
ALABAMA THIS MORNING…

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
AND FORECAST DATA INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE…ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN
NARROW BANDS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDDAY COULD TOTAL
AROUND ONE INCH IN PORTIONS OF CULLMAN COUNTY…WITH AMOUNTS AROUND
1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. LESSER
AMOUNTS…FROM A TRACE UP TO 1/4 INCH…CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER…INCLUDING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL…GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS…WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES…ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THIS MORNING…BEFORE TAKING A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT…THE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY…ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FAY IS FORECAST TO TAKE A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
TUESDAY AFTER STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. FAY COULD THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR…
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

_________________________________________________________

Here is the latest radar depiction of the system:

Obviously, if the center of the storm moves, as forecast, to the southwest toward Louisiana, we will be slightly outside the outer rainbands.  If it then moves northeast, as also forecast, that will put us directly in the path of more steady rains by mid-week.  Since we are still more than a foot behind in year to date rainfall, we can be hopeful for the rains of FAY. 

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

As of Thursday afternoon, tropical storm FAY remains stationary just off the east coast of Florida.  The latest forecast tracking models still suggest FAY will start moving west, making it’s third landfall in Florida.  The model of general consensus has the storm moving through the Florida panhandle toward southwest Alabama.

Notice the northwesterly curl of the track toward the end of this sequence.  An approaching cool front may very well pick up the remnants of the system at that point and push it north and northeast.  If that DOES work out it would put the rains that remain in a path directly toward us in north Alabama.

Stay tuned to channel 31 for the latest FAY updates.

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

As of midday Tuesday, tropical storm FAY made landfall in southwest Florida early this morning, and is currently inland, moving NNE.  Here’s the latest positioning map:

Now the question:  which forecasting model will FAY follow in it’s journey.  Some models suggest it will move into the Atlantic and then start moving west back into Florida or southern Georgia, and possibly into Alabama. 

As you can see above, the model of choice, for the moment is the one that DOES send FAY in our general direction.  If this holds true, we could very well see some beneficial rains in a few days here in the Tennessee Valley.  Stay Tuned  !!

 Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

As of Sunday afternoon, it’s looking more and more like tropical storm Fay may indeed be making plans for a Florida beach visit, perhaps late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.  As you can see on the latest positioning map, our neighbors down Cuba way are in for a pounding.

And the latest forecast track of probability puts the center of the cone well to our east here in the Tennessee Valley.  Again, this would pretty much eliminate us from getting any beneficial rains from the system.

As you know, forecasted movements of tropical systems, while generally on target, can vary in the extended outlook, thus, we’ll be keeping a close eye on any changes to these models.  Stay with us on channel 31 for updates and of course we’ll keep you posted right here.

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31

Checking the latest from the Hurricane Center on this Saturday morning…it’s looking more and more like tropical storm Fay may be impacting the weather for Florida and parts of the southeast over the next several days.  Here’s the latest positioning map as provided by the hurricane center:

And here is the latest forecast track for the system:

If the center of this cone of probability holds true, then we in the Tennessee Valley would likely miss the beneficial rains Fay could provide.  However, any change toward a more northwesterly track through the Gulf of Mexico could result in significant rainfall for our drought stricken areas.

Rest assured the Storm Force 31 team will be monitoring this situation closely and reporting on it for you on channel 31 as well as right here on StormForce31.com.

Gary Dobbs, Meteorologist / StormForce 31