As a very strong area of high pressure slides off to the east Wednesday, the winds will return out of the south, and that will allow 2 days of moisture transport into the atmosphere before the main event of showers and t-storms move threaten the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

There will be many ingredients in place that will spell a chance for damaging t-storms, including isolated tornadoes.  The surface winds will be out of the south, while the wind flow at 3,000 feet will likely be out of the Southwest.  At about 10,000 feet, the winds will be out of the west, as they will be at nearly 18,000 feet. 

If you stack these winds atop one another, you can see that a rising culumn of air will be spun in a clockwise direction, which is also described as a cyclonic spin.  Thunderstorms that have a cyclonic spin are called meso-’cyclones’ and are the storms responsible for producing most tornadoes.  This is why these storms will require watching from Noon Friday until the cold front passes Saturday morning.

Behind that… prepare for a cooler weekend and high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s on Saturday, and the middle 70s on Sunday, which should spell a ‘N-I-C-E’ weekend.

Check out the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Showers and thunderstorms dotted the Tennessee Valley this weekend, but just in time for the WORK WEEK (!!!!) the great weather has returned.  At least the rains held off most of the weekend for another very successful and enjoyable Panoply.

For the rest of the week, the temperatures will slowly rise after they hit rock bottom once again on Tuesday morning.  With morning low temperatures in the upper 30s in MOST of the Tennessee Valley, the middle 30s are likely in protected valleys and low spots, giving some of us a chance for a light frost.  After that…. 60s, 70s, 80s, and T-storms.  There, that was easy.

Check out the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

 If we see just shy of an inch of rain, (.96″) before the month ends, we’ll see the first monthly surplus of rain since October of 2006.  If we see 1.98″, we’ll see the first calander month of a 1″ surplus or more since December of 2004.

That being the headline, and the fact that we need all the rains we can get in these Spring showers, the probabilities of weekend showers and thunderstorms is promising for our long-term rainfall needs, but not for our short-term Panoply and other outdoor plans.  Hoping that the timing of the rains will not wash out numerous plans, the showers that visit should be neither dangerously severe nor overly long-term, meaning that most plans can be delayed or brought indoors as opposed to cancelled. 

That said, the best chances for rains are Saturday morning through Noon, and then late Sunday Morning and Early afternoon, before more showers come through Sunday late afternoon and evening. 

If Sunday’s storms arrive after we see afternoon heating, there is a small chance that some of the storms could cause damaging winds and hail.

The cold front that will help to cause the thundershowers will cool us down to the 70s on both Saturday and Sunday, then into the low to mid 60s on Monday.  There is another warming trend awaiting us starting Tuesday, but isn’t it always after a dip in temperatures.

Check out the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Always Avoid Awkward and Afflicted Alliteration

The chances for showers and thunderstorms continue to increase as the weekend approaches.  A cool front will move across the Tennessee Valley with a surge of Gulf Moisture ahead of the front that will be strained out of the air in the form of scattered showers and some thundershowers.  The time frame of the best chances for showers is from 9am until 3pm, with hopefully a break for the late afternoon and evening hours of Panoply until the rain chances increase again from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.  However, with all storm systems of this size, there is a threat for showers and thundershowers during other weekend hours as well.

After the chances for rain taper off early Monday morning, cooler temperatures will sink into the Tennessee Valley leaving high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.  This will be followed by a low temparature in the lower 40s Tuesday morning, before the quick warm-up of next week.

Check out the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

With panoply taking place this weekend in downtown Huntsville, and thousands of us planning to spend time there, we have a better than even chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, but not for the entire weekend.  Most of you should be able to spend time outdoors at times with slow-downs or cancellations for sporadic chances for rains and showers.  Don’t let it keep you indoors, but do check the weather as you have weekend plans.

On Monday, the coolest air of this series of storm systems begins arriving to remind us that the ramping up of temperatures on the way to Summer is not happening at full speed.  As cooler air settles in, the chances for showers leaves the Tennessee Valley, setting the stage for another chilly morning on Tuesday, before we start another warm up next week.

Check out the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

As is always the case… a 7-Day forecast in the Tennessee Valley in the Spring is, at best, always negotiable.  You are the customer, Mother Nature is the New Car Sales Manager, and I am the Salesman who represents both parties involved and their interests.

Did I just call meteorologists car salesmen?  That was probably a bad move.  And depending on the expertise and experience of the forecaster, you could be driving a Suzuki or a Bentley.  Personally, when you depend on my forecasts, you should have Bentley expectations.

Enough of that digression.  With a fairly strong jet stream flow across the nation, and a pretty vigorous upper level storm moving our way late in the weekend, slight changes in wind patterns which blow across our continent at between 90 to 150 miles per hour accelerate air masses, and the cold and warm fronts that separate them, setting them into motion and increasing their momentum.  This makes a forecast of relatively calm weather become a forecast where a couple of fronts which were supposed to stay a hundred miles away yesterday to become a weather maker in the Tennessee Valley in today’s atmospheric modeling and forecasting.

Sounds pretty complex huh?  Well, it is.  Trust me.  So when you are looking at your meteorologist’s bio, education, experience and training DO matter.

BOTTOMLINE:  A chance for t-storms for Panoply weekend in Huntsville at Big Spring Park.  No big surprise there, huh?

Check the 7-Day forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Some Very Nice Weather Heading Into Panoply Weekend

Subsiding Air.  High Pressure.  One in the same.  Think of ‘high pressure’ as an increasing amount of weight being pressed upon the surface of the earth by air sinking on it, much like someone standing over you, shifting their weight to their foot atop your chest.

In the atmosphere, it means a limit to the number and thickness of clouds, a diminished ability to produce gusty winds, and usually an increase in the amount of haze that builds up underneath the area of high pressure.

When this weather pattern begins to break the chance for isolated t-storms usually enters slowly until the next surface storm system moves across the Tennessee Valley, and in this case, it is a cold front Monday or Tuesday of next week, if it indeed materializes.

That entire write-up is the technical way to say… the weather remains boring… well, pleasant to you, boring for meteorologists.  Remember, we don’t go to school to learn to forecast just sunny skies!

Check the 7-Day forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

As rain and t-storms head into the Tennessee Valley late Friday and early Saturday morning, it will mark the first rain to visit the Tennessee Valley since the rains and storms of last Friday, and scattered areas of drizzle on Saturday.  In the midst of a slowly waning drought, if we continue to see infrequent rains and showers, the drought will continue to linger.  Check out the latest Drought Monitor Release from today here.

With high temperatures climbing near 80 degrees, there is a slight chance for a few isolated afternoon thundershowers to develop ahead of the main line of developing thunderstorms, and if that happens, there will be a few areas of heavy downpours with dangerous lightning and rumbles of thunder.  Behind that, cooler weather will prevail on Saturday with a breezy westerly wind, followed by a near perfect Sunday, before showers and t-storms start to develop next week on a more isolated to widely scattered basis as temperatures climb into the midle 80s, and the first humidity you can feel this season builds into the Southeast.

Check the 7-Day forecast for details.

Brad Huffines , Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

At WAAY-31, we receive emails frequently asking for explanations for our news and weather coverage at times.  This email came from a student at Jacksonville State University pertaining to what industry insiders call ‘wall-to-wall’ tornado coverage during tornado warnings.  Below is my reply to his question, followed by his original email to me.  I hope this helps explain WAAY-31’s commitment to your safety while providing accurate and realistic coverage during the threat for tornadoes and severe weather. 

Also, read THIS BLOG POST from 2007 to learn more about Storm Force 31’s overall philosophy toward severe weather coverage.

Aaron,

WAAY-TV’s policy is dependent on the analysis of the meteorologist on duty.

When storms have a small likelihood of producing a tornado, we will do frequent cut-ins into programming until that storm either stops threatening, or becomes more threatening when we suspend all programming to stay on until the threat or danger passes.  We do not allow the NWS to determine our viewer coverage commitment, but allow our meteorological editorial expertise to determine how to inform the public of potential dangers.  We feel it is as dangerous to the public in the long-run to overplay non-verifiable warnings as it is in the short-term to underplay real threats.

I hope this answers your question.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

 

From: jsu5381m@jsu.edu [mailto:jsu5381m@jsu.edu]
Sent: Wed 4/16/2008 12:53 PM
To: WAAY Weather
Subject: Informal Survey Class Project Severe Weather Coverage
 Mr. Huffines,My name is Aaron Tanner. I am a senior majoring in geography at Jacksonville
State University in Jacksonville, Alabama. I am doing an informal survey for a class project on severe weather coverage in Alabama TV markets. My question is, when a tornado warning is issued for a county in the WAAY viewing area (I realize the viewing area includes not just the Huntsville DMA but bits of the Birmingham and Nashville DMA), does WAAY suspend regular programming and do wall to wall coverage for the tornado warning, or does WAAY keep doing regular programming with occasional updates on the storm? What is
your station’s policy regarding tornado warnings? Your answer would be greatly appreciated.Sincerely,
Aaron Tanner

We have bottomed out.  Hit rock bottom.  Dredged the bottom.  Bottom dwelt.  And many more bottom sayings that do not include the genre of Hip Hop music.

So, when you are on the bottom, you can go nowhere but…?  Exactly.  And that is exactly where we are headed.  Temperatures stayed in the 60s on Tuesday, and Wednesday through the rest of the week will reach into the 70s before they return to the 80s next week.  Rain chances are likely to be relegated to Friday night and early Saturday morning.  Some of the showers and t-storms heading our way late in the week could bring locally heavy rain to isolated areas, but this brief taste of showers will neither last long nor have long-term impact on the drought situation.

As high temperatures climb into the low- to mid- 80s next week, our rain chances start creeping back upward, but not into the likely category at least into next Tuesday.

Check the 7-Day forecast for details.

Brad Huffines , Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

What a ride!  From 80s, severe t-storms and tornado warnings on Friday, to 50s this afternoon, and temperatures heading toward freezing for the start of Tax Day 2008.  (Remember the Rule of (green) Thumb in North Alabama?  “Never plant anything in the ground before April 15th unless you want to risk a freeze.”  Well, scores of Tennessee Valley gardeners decided the risk is worth it… and will be sweating a cold morning as we all think taxes.

Now the good news.  After that, the weather warms consistently through the end of the week, with a chance for rains and some t-storms before a slight weekend cooldown.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31