Archive for March, 2008

A Fairy Tale Drought Story Continues looking Grimm

Monday, March 31st, 2008

THANKFULLY… we are in a pattern of wet weather, where the showers are falling under continued cloudy skies which is the PERFECT scenario for us in the midst of trying to climb out of a three year drought. Now, please remember, that while we can put a 3 year drought behind us with just a few months of steady rain, we are STILL in an severe to extreme drought category, so we are not out of the woods yet. The good news is that we can actually see where the woods end, though there are lots of forest creatures between us the the light, if you will forgive my Grimm fairy tale analogies.

Latest Alabama Drought Monitor

Speaking of the ORIGINAL Brothers Grimm fairy tales, have you actually READ them and seen the ORIGINAL German versions that they taught the children? Most of these couldhave been scripts for modern day U.S. horror movies! Not ALL of them, but god grief. No wonder why my ancestors in Der Vaterland seemed to be so troubled. (Surprised that a last name of Huffines <original was Hoffeinz> is German?)

Even THIS IMAGE is Troubling!

Enjoy the rain. Plus you get extra bonus points if I catch you humming a certain Eddie Rabbit song in the midst of these blessed rains!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

NASA’s 15th Annual Great Moonbuggy Race

Friday, March 28th, 2008

COMING TO A MOON NEAR YOU….

Are you searching for an ”out of this world” activity to attend in the near future?  We have just the suggestion, that is, if you are into Lunar Space Racing.

The 15th Annual Great Moonbuggy Race is April 4-5, 2008 in Huntsville, Alabama, at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center. Students are required to design a vehicle that addresses a series of engineering problems that are similar to problems faced by the original Moonbuggy team.

Each Moonbuggy will be human powered and carry two students, one female and one male, over a half-mile simulated lunar terrain course including “craters”, rocks, “lava” ridges, inclines and “lunar” soil.Moonbuggy entries are expected to be of “proof-of-concept” and engineering test model nature, rather than final production models.

Each student team of six members is responsible for building their own buggy, and the course drivers, who are chosen from each team, must also be builders of the vehicle. As a part of the competition, and prior to course testing, the un-assembled Moonbuggy entries must be carried to the course starting line, with the unassembled components contained in a volume of 4′x 4′x 4′ (dimension requirements similar to those for the original Lunar Roving Vehicle). At the starting line, the entries will be assembled and readied for course testing and evaluated for safety. Assembly occurs one time prior to the first course run.

The top three winning teams in each division (one high school division and one college division) will be those having the shortest total times in assembling their moonbuggies and traversing the terrain course. Each team is permitted two runs of the terrain course, and the shortest course will be added to the assembly time for the final total event time.

Prizes

Prizes will be awarded to the top three winning teams in both the High School Division and College Division. Awards will be for the six registered team members and their faculty/instructor advisor.

Additional awards will be given for: Most Unique, Most Improved, Rookie Award and the System Safety Award. Another honor, the Design Competition, is described below.

Design Competition

A prize will also be awarded to the team whose Moonbuggy design represents the best technical approach toward solving the engineering problem of navigating the lunar surface. The award is based, not on Moonbuggy race performance, but upon the technical approach taken by teams in their design. The design competition is optional. For more information about design criteria, please go to the Great Moonbugy Race Design Competiton.

The Course

The following is a description of the Great Moonbuggy Race course. The course and specific obstacles may vary in detail from this general outline, but the description should give participants a good idea of the layout of the course.

  1. The starting line is located underneath the Space Shuttle, near the “Pits” Area where moonbuggies are inspected and repaired. Obstacle One, consisting of two ridges, is located underneath the Shuttle. 
  2. After Obstacle One, the course slopes up slightly on a paved (asphalt) path, and over a hill toward Obstacle Two. After Obstacle Two, one travels downhill and encounters Obstacle Three. A sharp turn to the left leads through the Rocket Display Area to Obstacle Four and then Obstacle Five, located near the rear of the Saturn V rocket and in the Rocket Display Area.
  3. Upon exiting Obstacle Five, the course turns sharply to the right, remaining on asphalt and moving uphill. One encounter, Obstacles Six through Eight. The three obstacles are gravel.
  4. At the end of this straight section of the course, a wide turn (approximately 135 degrees) to the right brings participants to the circular downhill path leading to the lunar Crater Area. On the way to the Crater Area, Obstacles Nine and Ten will be found. After Obstacle 10, the course continues to follow the curved path downhill to the Crater Area.
  5. Upon entering the Crater Area, the course moves to the left and takes a complete 360-degree clockwise path through the lunar terrain. The largest crater, Obstacle 11, has a rim rising approximately 18″ over 2 feet and a diameter of approximately 15 feet. After leaving the Crater Area, moonbuggies will travel to the right toward Obstacles 12-14, all gravel obstacles. The path is at first flat, and then slopes uphill toward Obstacle 14.
  6. After Obstacle 14 the course terrain is gently sloping downward, with a few “speed bumps” to slow descent.
  7. The course takes a left-hand turn as the participants enter the U.S. Space Shuttle Area and the series of three lunar Obstacles 15, 16, and 17. Obstacle 15 is a sand pit and Obstacles 16 and 17 are described as undulating terrain.

Keller Watts, Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Scatterings of Showers, Some Storms and Other S-words

Thursday, March 27th, 2008

 With rains and thundershowers moving in on Friday as a cool front slips through the Tennessee Valley, when you head out the door Friday morning, pack your rain gear in case you happen to be outside when the showers come to visit your neighborhood or areas of work and business.  Keep the umbrella handy for Saturday with another chance for some scattered showers as the front will hang up just south of us and keep our atmosphere unsettled.

Weekend Forecast

Sunday, the cooler air that crosses the Appalachians will whip back around the mountains in North Georgia and return to parts of the Tennessee Valley as a backdoor front, one that comes in from the opposite direction from where cooler air normally arrives.

Sunday's Cool Down

As for next week, warm air surges back in on Monday, taking us back into the 70s, reloading the skies wtih humidity to set the stage for more rains and thunderstorms Monday afternoon through the passage of the next cool front Tuesday morning.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Breakfast Food Predicts Tornadoes??

Wednesday, March 26th, 2008

 

Although, it may not be exactly what you are imagining. 

Did you know that there’s a new breakfast food that helps meteorologists predict severe storms? Down South they call it “GrITs.”

GrITs stands for Gravity wave Interactions with Tornadoes. “It’s a computer model I developed to study how atmospheric gravity waves interact with severe storms,” says research meteorologist Tim Coleman of the National Space Science and Technology Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

According to Coleman, wave-storm interactions are very important. If a gravity wave hits a rotating thunderstorm, it can sometimes spin that storm up into a tornado.

Click on the image to watch a gravity wave roll over Tama, Iowa, on May 7, 2006. Credit: Iowa Environmental Mesonet Webcam.

What is an atmospheric gravity wave? Coleman explains: “They are similar to waves on the surface of the ocean, but they roll through the air instead of the water. Gravity is what keeps them going. If you push water up and then it plops back down, it creates waves. It’s the same with air.”

Coleman left his job as a TV weather anchor in Birmingham to work on his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. “I’m having fun,” he says, but his smile and enthusiasm already gave that away.

“You can see gravity waves everywhere,” he continues. “When I drove in to work this morning, I saw some waves in the clouds. I even think about wave dynamics on the water when I go fishing now.”

Gravity waves get started when an impulse disturbs the atmosphere. An impulse could be, for instance, a wind shear, a thunderstorm updraft, or a sudden change in the jet stream. Gravity waves go billowing out from these disturbances like ripples around a rock thrown in a pond.

When a gravity wave bears down on a rotating thunderstorm, it compresses the storm. This, in turn, causes the storm to spin faster. To understand why, Coleman describes an ice skater spinning with her arms held straight out. “Her spin increases when she pulls her arms inward.” Ditto for spinning storms: When they are compressed by gravity waves, they spin faster to conserve angular momentum.

“There is also wind shear in a gravity wave, and the storm can take that wind shear and tilt it and make even more spin. All of these factors may increase storm rotation, making it more powerful and more likely to produce a tornado.”

“We’ve also seen at least one case of a tornado already on the ground (in Birmingham, Alabama, on April 8, 1998) which may have become more intense as it interacted with a gravity wave.”

Above: Click on the graphic to play an actual Doppler radar movie of a gravity wave interacting with a rotating thunderstorm and making it stronger in northwest Alabama on Jan. 22, 1999. Credit: NOAA.

Coleman also points out that gravity waves sometimes come in sets, and with each passing wave, sometimes the tornado or rotating storm will grow stronger.

Tim and his boss, Dr. Kevin Knupp, are beginning the process of training National Weather Service and TV meteorologists to look for gravity waves in real-time, and to use the theories behind the GrITs model to modify forecasts accordingly.

Who would have thought grits could predict bad weather? “Just us meteorologists in Alabama,” laughs Coleman. Seriously, though, Gravity wave Interactions with Tornadoes could be the next big thing in severe storm forecasting.

Below: This GrITS (Gravity wave Interactions with Tornadoes) computer model output shows how the vorticity of a rotating thunderstorm increases as a gravity wave passes through it. Credit: Tim Coleman.

A “model” is a computer simulation based on mathematical equations that describe atmospheric processes. The researchers run the model many times for many scenarios to get a general picture of how the process under investigation works. For GrITs, they make sure the model reflects patterns of how waves affect mesocyclones/tornadoes and indicate the factors that amplify those effects.

Every storm is different, and the researchers show the forecasters what to look for, in general. Forecasters do not directly use the GrITs model, but will instead use the general results the researchers get from the model and share with them. The researchers may share charts with the forecasters to show how each parameter (angle between wave and storm inflow, wave amplitude, wave speed, storm intensity, etc.) changes the effect a wave will have on a mesocyclone.

Keller Watts, Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

China Uses Artillery to Protect Olympics

Tuesday, March 25th, 2008

How the Chinese plan to modify the weather in Beijing during the Olympics, using supercomputers and artillery…

I saw this in an article from which I will include an excerpt, with the link to the entire article included below.  It will be interesting to see how or if this works.  Of course if it does not, it will probably be hard to find out since it is… well, China.

Getting Out the Big Guns to Fight Mother Nature

To prevent rain over the roofless 91,000-seat Olympic stadium that Beijing natives have nicknamed the Bird’s Nest, the city’s branch of the national Weather Modification Office–itself a department of the larger China Meteorological Administration–has prepared a three-stage program for the 2008 Olympics this August.

First, Beijing’s Weather Modification Office will track the region’s weather via satellites, planes, radar, and an IBM p575 supercomputer, purchased from Big Blue last year, that executes 9.8 trillion floating point operations per second. It models an area of 44,000 square kilometers (17,000 square miles) accurately enough to generate hourly forecasts for each kilometer.

Then, using their two aircraft and an array of twenty artillery and rocket-launch sites around Beijing, the city’s weather engineers will shoot and spray silver iodide and dry ice into incoming clouds that are still far enough away that their rain can be flushed out before they reach the stadium.

Beijing Olympic Logo

Finally, any rain-heavy clouds that near the Bird’s Nest will be seeded with chemicals to shrink droplets so that rain won’t fall until those clouds have passed over. Zhang Qian, head of Beijing’s Weather Modification Office, explains, “We use a coolant made from liquid nitrogen to increase the number of droplets while decreasing their average size. As a result, the smaller droplets are less likely to fall, and precipitation can be reduced.” August is part of Northeast Asia’s rainy season; chances of precipitation over Beijing on any day that month will approach 50 percent. Still, while tests with clouds bearing heavy rain loads haven’t always been successful, Qian claims that “the results with light rain have been satisfactory.”

The original article is here.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

An Early Spring Freeze Leaves Plants Shivering

Monday, March 24th, 2008

 

Last growing season, we had a late freeze that wiped out many of the spring and summer crops in Alabama.  The bad news first… a freeze tonight might nip a few buds for plants starting to show their trust for Mother Nature’s goodness.

Peachy Picture

The good news is that at this point, the plants are less sensitive to a hard freeze than later in the growing season.  I hope for the sake of local agriculture interests, this is the last freeze of the season, but of course, there is no way to promise that.

End of Week Jet Stream

With the Jet Stream becoming a virtually West-to-East wind flow, the chance for a strong cold front to drop into the Tennessee Valley with a big temperatures change and damaging thunderstorms is minimal, showing that March should go out like a lamb, much like how it came in.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for Details

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Storm Force 31 Backstage Pass

Friday, March 21st, 2008

What you see on camera is not the only thing that goes on in a TV Station’s Studio.  Here at Channel 31, the weather center is located behind the news set, where Brad, Keller and Gary make their forecasts.  Several computers and three smart brains bring you the daily accurate forecast.

Dad in Weather Center

My name is Brian Huffines, son of Brad Huffines.  I’m 16 years old and a Sophomore at Cypress Creek High School in Houston, TX.  I’ve been around news basically my whole life.  I often forget that many of you have never seen what truly goes on behind the scenes in a TV Station.  However, there are many things I’ve seen and heard that I won’t share!

Looking at Tower Cam

As Dad forecasts, he fills out a specially made Excel spreadsheet he designed to add detail to his local forecast for the Tennessee Valley.  On this spreadsheet, Dad lists high and low temperatures, precipitation chances, and wind forecasts he later reproduces on his weather graphics.  This he says helps him to keep organized, and if you know my dad, he needs all the help he can get!

Spreadsheet and NWS Chat

Excel Forecast

Once on camera, Dad stands in front of a big green wall called a Chromakey Wall.  The camera is hooked to a computer that is sensitive to this color green.  Anything the camera sees is green, a computer superimposes his weather graphics over the green.  So if you ever see him wearing this color green, he will turn into a weather map, so please point and laugh all you want!  He tells where he’s pointing by looking at television mounted on either side of the wall where he sees just what you see at home.  Now you just thought that was one big TV screen, but nope now you know that secret!

Pointing at Nothing...

News set and cameras

This is just the very basics of everything that goes on in a Television Weather Studio.  I must say, you are pretty lucky that you have my dad giving you the best forecast around.  Yeah, okay, I might be a little biased, but you have to admit, he is pretty darn good!  I’ll post every so often, but until then take care. 

C/SrAmn Brian Huffines, Civil Air Patrol, Son of Chief Meteorologist Brad Huffines / Storm Force 31

Active Weather for Your Easter Weekend

Friday, March 21st, 2008

The Easter weekend of 2008 will be remembered weather wise for how the early Spring weather was warm for a few days before, even warmer the days following, and for its coolness on Easter Sunday itself.  The temperature changes will be fairly dynamic, after highs in the low 70s on Friday, by Easter, the temperatures will be 20 degrees cooler.  In fact the coolest day of the cool down coming will be Easter Sunday itself.  So dress the young’uns in a jacket if you are taking them outside to hunt Easter eggs.  

 Easter Weekend 2008

And remember you might not find all the plastic eggs, but if you use real eggs to hide, eventually your nose WILL find them all.

Rotten Egg - Hold Your Nose

The first full work week of Spring might start off with a few areas of light rain and sprinkles, but with the rapidly warming temperatures next week, by Friday, some of the Tennessee Valley might actually see a few thermometers reach 80.  Yes, that’s what I said.  The week might also bring a couple instances of showers or thundershowers as well.

Check out the 7-Day forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Goodbye Winter, Hello Spring, Welcome Back Allergies

Thursday, March 20th, 2008

As of yesterday there was a threat for early morning snow in the Tennessee Valley on Monday morning.  But as each successive computer model run shows is a slightly warmer weather pattern than suggested yesterday, lessening the chance for any snow flurries, and increasing the chance for a little drizzle late Sunday night and early Monday morning.

Overall the weather for the Easter weekend of 2008 shows comfortably cool weather on Saturday, a little cooler on Easter itself, and a chilly Monday following the weekend.  The chances for any measurable precipitation is not in the 7-Day forecast.

Check out the 7-Day forecast for details.

Drought Monitor Feb 28, 2008

On a brighter note, the US Drought Monitor shows that the Exceptional Drought that has controlled the Tennessee Valley for over a year is lessning dramatically.  3 months ago, nearly 50% of the state was considered in an exceptional drought category, and now that has dropped to 1.5%.  So there have been improvements with the recent rains.

Drought Monitor, March 18, 2008

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

BENEFICIAL RAIN…INSTEAD OF SEVERE STORMS

Wednesday, March 19th, 2008

 

 

FIRST DAY OF SPRING APPEARS…WELL, JUST MARVELOUS

The storms that moved through the TN Valley in the early morning Wednesday WERE NOT SEVERE and left behind about one inch of beneficial precipitation in the rain buckets; with some areas along Sand Mountain and Southern Middle TN receiving nearly two inches.  Most of the rain has now made its exit and cloudy skies prevail acroess the area, execept for a thin sliver of sunshine peeking through in the Shoals, but that will be short-lived as clouds re-arrive.

Spring officially arrives Thursday March 20th at 12:48 AM Central Daylight Time and much better days are ahead with cooler temperatures and clear skies arriving behind the cold front.  The extended forecast promises that the gorgeous days will last through early next week, but don’t discount another cold snap over the weekend with Saturday and Sunday’s overnight temperatures dipping into the low 30s as a Canadian airmass pluges soutward.

Check out the 7-Day forecast for details.

Keller Watts, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Great Weather Takes a Couple Days Off

Tuesday, March 18th, 2008

After high temperatures climbed into the lower 70s (again), we are reminded that Spring is just days and hours away, starting on Thursday, March 20th at 12:48am, Central Daylight Time.  With spring-like weather, both in the form of heavy to severe t-storms, as well as more warm temperatures, will usher out Winter and in Spring, while the weekend weather pattern will show for some cooler temeratures.

Vernal Equinox Art

With overnight and early morning storms possible in the Tennessee Valley Wednesday morning, the main threat is for gusty or damaging winds as well as areas of pea to marble-sized hail.  The threat for tornadoes is very little, but not entirely out of the question.  Behind that, two very nice days followed by a cooling weather pattern for the weekend.

Tuesday Morning's Weather

Check out the 7-Day forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

PREPARING FOR MORE STORMS

Monday, March 17th, 2008

rain 

ENJOY TUESDAY’S WARM TEMPERATURES, BUT PREPARE FOR WEDNESDAY’S STORMS

Temperatures are running comfortably above normal averages for mid-March as the thermometer continues to record 70 degree readings Valley-wide.  Another pre-spring warm up can be expected for Tuesday with the mercury soaring to another above 70 degree day, but watch for the clouds to increase throughout the day as a powerful storm system gains strength to our west and begins to affect the Tennessee Valley very early Wednesday morning.  The strongest of the storms will likely push through North Alabama between the hours of 3 AM and 8 AM Wednesday with the main threat being straight-line damaging winds, dangerous lightning and three-quarter inch hail.  THIS WILL BE AN OVERNIGHT EVENT, SO REVIEW AND BE PREPARED TO EXECUTE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN…ALSO CHECK THE BATTERIES IN YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. 

The rain will come to an end by the noon hour on Wednesday and skies will clear by late afternoon.  Thursday through Saturday will be absolutley gorgeous with spring-like temperatures continuing to remain in the upper 60s and 70s with cooler evenings in the 40s.

Check out the 7-Day forecast for details.

Keller Watts, Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Georgia Dome Takes a HIT

Friday, March 14th, 2008

If you were watching the Alabama – Mississippi State basketball game, you were able to see a very rare event.  Thunderstorm damage occurring right in front of your eyes.  And as of 9:21am, the Georgia Dome had been damaged, as had the CNN Center, the Omni, with windows blown out, with WAGA in Atlanta reporting injuries on the ground.  At the time of the possible tornado, as was reported by the Fulton County Emergengy Management, a Tornado Warning was in effect, but not a confirmed tornado.  However, as the storm damage is surveyed in the daylight, it would not surprise me to see the National Weather Service, Atlanta, to report an EF1 tornado.

Possible Tornadic Storm in Atlanta

The storm system that caused this damage was the same storm system that caused nickel sized hail in Northeast Alabama, and the morning rains and storms in the rest of North Alabama.

Be prepared for overnight strong to severe t-storms in North Alabama as well as the potential for severe weather during the morning and afternoon hours as well.  Please read the blog below for information on that storm potential.

 Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Staying Weather Aware Until Saturday Night

Friday, March 14th, 2008

A stormy start to Saturday is entirely possible, if not likely in much of the Tenessee Valley.  While computer model forecasting is the basis for most of modern weather forecasts, this is one case where the computer models don’t necessarily agree on either the timing or even likelihood of overnight and Saturday severe weather.  Below is the threat for Severe T-storms until 7am on Saturday morning.

Day 1 Severe Threat 

It is definitely a time to remain weather aware from the time you read this until the cold front passes on Saturday early evening.  Below is the Severe Weather Threat until 7pm on Saturday.  Notice how the most dangerous weather is expected in Georgia and the Carolinas.

Day 2 Outlook

The greatest threat for severe weather is damaging winds and large hail, but isolated tornadoes are also possible as well until this weather pattern changes dramatically by Sunday.

March 16 Sunday Forecast

Following clearing skies on Sunday, nice weather will remain through Monday, before another threat for showers and t-storms forms on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.  With a sharp weather pattern heading our way, there is also another threat for severe t-storms, but again, not a surity at this time.

Check out the 7-Day forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

T-storms in Our Future

Wednesday, March 12th, 2008

But Mixed with Sunshine, Still Pleasant Temps

High pressure continues to hold a firm grip over the southeast giving us plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures for the next few days(Wednesday & Thursday).  BUT….all good things must come to an end, at least for Friday & Saturday, as warm unstable air spreads northward over the Tennessee Valley causing early showers on Friday and the eruption of thunderstorms late Friday night and very early Saturday morning.  The focus of the first round of storms will be along the warm front; which should pass sometime around the midnight hour on Friday.  We will then shift into the warm sector of the storm system(south of the warm front and east of the cold front)where the atmosphere will be ripe for the formation of thunderstorms that could potentially rotate before sunrise.  We will be “warm-sectored” for a few hours Saturday morning and that will allow for some breaks in the clouds to provide heat-energy from the sun….yes, you guess it….conditions will become even more unstable.  The cold front will finally sweep in from the west by noon Saturday and begin to clear our skies by late Saturday afternoon.

Check the 7-Day Forecast for the latest details and enjoy the next few days

Keller Watts, Meteorologist, Storm Force 31