Archive for September, 2007

Just What the Web Needs, Another Alarmist Article

Tuesday, September 25th, 2007

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article2517868.ece 

(When you go to that article, please read the 77 comments at the end.  They do a good job of framing arguments… well some of them that are reasoned and articulate.)

Ok, again, we are all in great jeopardy because a recently discovered phenomena is being used to scare the pants off the same humans who have lived through this same phenomena for hundreds of thousands, yea, millions of years.  <SIGH>  And guess what?  La Nina has been happening for those same hundreds of thousands, yea, millions of years, and it has NOT destroyed all of mankind, the planet itself, nor the way of life of homosapiens.

Club Med, Antarctica

Please read these comments by Huntsville’s own Dr. James Gregg:

La Nina is a phenomenon that has been around a lot longer than global warming alarmism and will be around a lot longer than global warming alarmism will last too. Global warming is occurring but everyday more evidence points to natural causes and not man-made causes. Indeed, mathematical calculations of the effect of CO2 alone, means DOUBLE the CO2 we have now is required to generate a 1C increase in temps. This is FACT. What has happened is the same thing that happened in the 70s when a coming ice age was pushed and by the same person who screams global warming now, Dr. James Hansen (read his 1971 paper on the coming ice age). He couldn’t sell a panic of global cooling so he’s selling a panic of global warming. Not to mention the corrections made to his temperature data negates the increases we have been told have occurred since 1930. Anthropogenic global warming is more political agenda than science and people are starting to realize it.  – Dr. James Gregg, Huntsville, AL, USA

 While I am attempting to verify Dr. Gregg’s credentials, I do enjoy the thought put forth in his reply to the article named above.  Frankly, I tire of the arguments of those who are trying to use ‘theories’ as ‘facts’, especially those who have track records of unproven theory after theory.

 Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Watch the ‘Jam’ Forecast Change

Monday, September 24th, 2007

Monday:  6:20pm. Tuesday: 6:45pm (So far so good, no editing to the comments so far….) Thursday, 5:45pm Friday, 9:45pm <FINAL>

The forecast for the weekend looks GREAT.  If you recall a quote from former National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield, “The safest place to be is in the middle of a NHC 5-day forecast track.”  I fear the same for the Big Spring Jam this year.  When we look at high temperatures in the 80s, evening temperatures in the 70s, and no real threat for showers, we experienced “Rammer Jammers” know that Mother Nature is not withour her surprises.  (UPDATE… The forecast HELD, and the 2 year jinx is broken.  There is plenty of profit to be made!)

BSJ From the Air

Computer models are what the weather forecasting industry uses while trying to forecast the weather.  Some models assist in short term and some on long term forecasting.  While there are many short term models to use in varying weather situations, there are few that are used for weather in the 5 to 10 day range.  That is why while looking at long-term forecasts, many forecasts are close in the longer range, shorter range forecasts show more variance between forecasters because there are more model forecasts in which to base opinions.

 So STAY TUNED.  The Big Spring Jam forecast WILL change. (And in THIS case, has only changed for the better!)

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Cool Hurricane Tools

Wednesday, September 19th, 2007

At NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center in Coral Gables, FL, they are always watching, tracking, and following the continuing changes in hurricane research.  Periodically, they will share some of those updates with the public on their web page.  One new tool they are using to give people a quick look at the tropical threats before they form into trackable storms is located here:

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Example of the Tropical Product

By looking at this product before you are leaving for travel in numerous tropical affected destination, you may be able to determine if you will be delayed by potential tropical danger, or to delay or cancel travel in areas potentially affected.

Most (I stress MOST) tropical systems do give us a few days to prepare and plan, unlike tornadic thunderstorms which can deliver deadly impacts within minutes of their formation.  By using the tools now available, there may be a way to make better decisions about you, your family’s, and your business’ travel plans.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Giving Homage to the Year’s Biggest Weather Story

Monday, September 17th, 2007

Temperatures are cooling.  Inevitably.  The tropics are showing signs of an ‘average’ year, not a year of ‘Super Hurricanes’ as forecast after the 2005 hurricane season by the alarmists (who, if raising enough attention to themselves, stand to rake in billions of dollars of research and support money).  So, what IS the most influential weather story of the past 2 to 3 years?

Farmer in the Dell

 Drought.  Drought.  Drought.

 With August ending up one of the warmest on record in many parts of the United States, and being the warmest on record in Hunstville (only 100 years of record keeping), there is no doubt the warm days have been a real drag on our psyches.  But, it has also been a real drag on our lawns, gardens, fields, crops, and forests.  Let’s not forget that years of very dry weather, when dealing with industries as well as parts of nature used to the ‘average’ amounts of rain, have dealt a very negative hand to nature, as well to our summer pocketbooks.

So if you look at drought statistics, and see the stunning drought conditions we are living through as you also look at other parts of the country literally swimming in Nature’s rain bounty, you can also see that as one part of the continent is affected by ONE condition, another part of that same continent is likely feeling its oposite.

As we record 2007, keep watch on the quiet affects of dry weather.  Just like rain is a form of ‘weather’, drought is a description of another type of weather.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Watch Out Global Warming…Here Comes Ozone

Friday, September 7th, 2007

 

If you thought the Gobal Warming debate was bad then “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet”  Today, the Environment Protection Agency released a statement proposing to reduce the amount of allowable ozone levels from 84 parts-per-billion to between 70 and 75 parts-per-billion.  Under the new guidelines, 14 Alabama counties could fail to comply with standards and that means that non-compliant communites would face federal intervention that could hinder new highways and new industries.  Let’s take Decatur for example:  Decatur’s three-year level average is 78 parts-per-billion, which would be acceptable under the new proposed guidelines.  But, places like Memphis and other industrialized cities  fight extremely hard to make the maxium allowable 84 parts-per-billion.  The national maximum allowable standards as set by the Natioal Ambient Air Quality Standards is 85 parts-per-billion  To understand this whole debate we must first know a little about ozone itself.  Here is a link to more information that you will ever want to know about ozone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone

The whole parts-per-billion thing is just a fancy way of expressing the calculation of the concentration of ozone in the atmosphere, don’t allow all of that chemistry jargon to confuse you.  Basically, this proposal is a great thing for mankind because reducing the amount of allowable ozone means that industial companies will have to closely monitor the levels that they release into the atmosphere.  That will help us all breathe much better.  However, the big companies are not going to just sit back and allow the government to put these colossal restrictions on them without a fight.  Enter the lawyers and lobbyists and then watch the lawsuits fly.  Most of them will go blind on months of paperwork before this whole thing is said and done, so sit back and watch the fireworks because this will be a heated debate for the next few years.  We will publish much more on this subject in the days to come so stay tuned.

Keller Watts/ Meteorologist/ StormForce 31

Knowing your Geography

Wednesday, September 5th, 2007

 

In the world of weather, it is of extreme importance to know one’s geography.  In fact, much of my basic education in meteorology started out with the study of geography of the entire world, and I find it facinating.  Geography encompasses so many disciplines that it is often hard to separate one science from another.   Geography is much more than maps of continents, landmarks, mountain chains and roads.  It about people, where they live, how they live and what affects their environment.  Geographers study the time and space distribution of phenomena, processes and feature as well as the interaction of humans and their envirnment.   As space and place affect a variety of topics such as economics, health, climate, plants and animals, geography is highly interdisciplinary.  Geography simply decribes earth.  Here are a few fun facts concerning geography that I ran across.  Meanwhile, take time to pick up a world atlas and learn about a new region.

Alaska 
More than half of the coastline of the entire United States is in Alaska.
Amazon 
The Amazon Rain Forest produces more than 20% of the world’s oxygen supply.  The Amazon River pushes so much water into the Atlantic Ocean that more than one hundred miles at sea off the mouth of the river one can dip fresh water out of the ocean.  The volume of water in the Amazon River is greater than the next eight largest rivers in the world combined and three times the flow of all rivers in the United States.
Antarctica 
Antarctica is the only land on our planet that is not owned by any country.  Ninety percent of the world’s ice covers Antarctica.  This ice also represents seventy percent of all the fresh water in the world.  As strange as it sounds, however, Antarctica is essentially a desert.  The average yearly total precipitation is about two inches.  Although covered with ice (all but 0.4% of it, i.e.), Antarctica is the driest place on the planet — with an absolute humidity lower than the Gobi desert.
Brazil 
Brazil got its name from the nut — not the other way around.
Canada 
Canada has more lakes than the rest of the world combined. Canada is an Indian word meaning ” Big Village.”

Chicago 
Next to Warsaw , Chicago has the largest Polish population in the world.

Detroit 
Woodward Avenue in Detroit, Michigan carries the designation M-1 . . . so named because it was the first paved road anywhere. 

Damascus, Syria 
Damascus , Syria, was flourishing a couple of thousand years before Rome was founded in 753 BC, making it the oldest continuously inhabited city in existence.

Istanbul, Turkey 
Istanbul, Turkey, is the only city in the world located on two continents. 

Los Angeles 
Los Angeles’s full name is El Pueblo de Nuestra Senora la Reina de los Angelesde Porciuncula — and can be abbreviated to 3.63% of its size:  L.A.

New York City 
The term “The Big Apple” was coined by touring jazz musicians of the 1930’s who used the slang expression “apple” for any town or city.  Therefore, to play New York City is to play the big time — The Big Apple.  There are more Irish in New York City than in Dublin, Ireland; more Italians in New York City than in Rome, Italy; and more Jews in New York City than in Tel Aviv, Israel .

Ohio 
There are no natural lakes in the state of Ohio — every one is man-made.

Pitcairn Island 
The smallest island with country status is Pitcairn in Polynesia, at just 1.75 sq. miles/4,53 sq. km.

Rome 
The first city to reach a population of 1 million people was Rome, Italy in 133 B.C.  There is a city called Rome on every continent. 

Siberia 
Siberia contains more than 25% of the world’s forests.

S.M.O.M. 
The actual smallest sovereign entity in the world is the Sovereign Military Order of Malta ( S.M.O.M.).  It is located in the city of Rome, Italy, has an area of two tennis courts, and as of 2001 has a population of 80 — 20 less people than the Vatican.  It is a sovereign entity under international law, just as the Vatican is.

Sahara Desert 
In the Sahara Desert , there is a town named Tidikelt, which did not receive a drop of rain for ten years.  Technically though, the driest place on Earth is in the valleys of the Antarctic near Ross Island.  There has been no rainfall there for two million years.

Spain 
Spain literally means ‘the land of rabbits.’

St. Paul, Minnesota 
St. Paul, Minnesota, was originally called Pig’s Eye after a man named Pierre”Pig’s Eye” Parrant, who set up the first business there.

Roads 
Chances that a road is unpaved in the U.S.A. — 1% and in Canada — 75%.

Texas 
The deepest hole ever made in the world is in Texas.  It is as deep as 20 Empire State Buildings — but only 3 inches wide.

United States 
The Eisenhower Interstate System requires that one mile in every five MUST be straight.  These straight sections are usable as airstrips in times of war or other emergencies. 

Waterfalls
The water of Angel Falls (the World’s highest) in Venezuela drops 3,212 feet (979 meters).  They are 15 times higher than Niagara Falls.

Drought, Heat, Hurricanes, and Tornadoes

Tuesday, September 4th, 2007

High Pressure, responsible for keeping us in the worst drought in Alabama recorded history, is performing a great service at eh same time it is providing drought devestation… and midwest flooding.  It is keeping the hurricanes (2 category 5 storms so far this season) well south into the Southern and Western Caribbean.

 Oddly enough, the same system that is keeping the hurricanes at bay for the United States is also responsible for the flooding rains of the Spring and Summer from Texas through the Upper Midwest.  USually around the ring of areas of high pressure, there are clashes of air masses that cause weather as extreme as the dry weather occuring under the influence of the high pressure systems themselves.  You can always bet that is one part of the globe is experiencing extreme weather of one kind, there is an area along the periphery experiencing extreme weather in an opposite vein.

Record Flooding

When will this let up?  Long-range forecasters don’t see much of a pattern shift coming our way through the Fall.  THis would be good news for those of us who dread the Fall Severe Weather Season in the Southeastern US.  If we remain under a belt of high pressure, though it will not negate severe weather outbreaks that will occur, it will limit the numbers of those outbreaks this fall in the Southeast.  Unfortunately, that threat will shift to other parts of the country not used to our usual bout of severe and tornadic t-storms in the Autumn.  So as usual, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.

Tornado

 And FYI, a below average season of severe t-storms and tornadoes that happens to produce a storm that damages your property or threatens your life, is a BAD SEASON, no matter how you look at it.  So, don’t let your guard down.

 Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

From a Space Point of View

Monday, September 3rd, 2007

A Picture

A Thousand Words.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

(PS) I found this pic while ‘Stumble!’-ing in Firefox.  Those who use Firefox know what I am talking about.

Flying Into a Thunderstorm

Saturday, September 1st, 2007

A thunderstorm near the Weikersheim Observatory in southern Germany, June 2007. Photo credit: Jens Hackmann.

Our friends and colleagues at NASA do an incredible amount of atmospheric research concerning thunderstorms and their life process, and this past summer was no exception.  In fact, many of the research scientists are located right here in Huntsville at  Marshall Spaceflight Center and the University of Alabama at Huntsville.  I had the opportunity to interview one of these scientist about two years ago when the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling project was in full swing in Costa Rica and Central America.  Here is a recent article about the lastest research concering the progress of that project and what is being learned about thunderstorms and their lifecycles.

Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow!
You cataracts and hurricanes, spout…
Rumble thy bellyful! Spit, fire! Spout, rain! (King Lear, Act III, Scene 2)

Shakespeare’s King Lear shouted to the heavens for a thunderstorm to vent its fury on him. A team of NASA scientists is hoping for precisely the same thing. They’d like a few really furious thunderstorms to come their way — but not for Lear’s dark purposes.

“We have a lot to learn about thunderstorms, and we’d like to study some at close range,” says Michael Goodman, an atmospheric scientist from the Marshall Space Flight Center. “There’s growing evidence that thunderstorms might play a role in climate change.” But how? That is the question.

“We have a lot to learn about thunderstorms, and we’d like to study some at close range,” says Michael Goodman, an atmospheric scientist from the Marshall Space Flight Center. “There’s growing evidence that thunderstorms might play a role in climate change.” But how? That is the question.

Above: The DC-8 with scientific instruments labeled.

To find out, a team of researchers (Goodman included) are in Costa Rica for a NASA-sponsored storm science campaign called Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling — TC4 for short. Like Lear himself, the scientists of TC4 will exhort the heavens to unleash their fury and, in the process, open themselves up to study.

Some thunderstorms are so violent they pump air more than 60,000 feet above Earth’s surface, punching through a layer of atmosphere called the tropopause all the way into the stratosphere:  TC4 pilots will fly in and around the tropopause to discover what kinds of particles are thrown up by thunderstorms and what the effect might be.

The team will also examine icy cirrus clouds that form when thunderstorms reach the tropopause. Cirrus clouds spread like a light blanket over a wide area, reflecting sunlight and cooling the Earth below. On the other hand, cirrus clouds also absorb infrared radiation coming from Earth. This “trapping” of infrared energy creates a warming effect. Particles catapulted upward by strong storms may cause changes in these icy clouds, upsetting the balance of cooling vs. warming. The net effect on Earth’s energy budget? To be determined.

TC-4 researchers have many tools at their disposal: several NASA satellites, three NASA aircraft (the ER-2, WB-57, and DC-8), weather radars and a number of meteorological balloons. Each has a key role to play in piecing together the storm’s “big picture,” gathering data on lightning, water vapor, wind speed, infrared emissions, dust particles, carbon monoxide and more.

 Above: A screenshot of RTMM displaying a July 17, 2007, flight of the NASA DC-8 through a Central American thunderstorm. Image credit: NASA/Michael Goodman.

Most exciting are the airplanes. NASA’s DC-8 seats about 35 researchers – that is, if they’ll actually sit down. It seems they have a tendency to mill about and talk to one another inside the plane, swaying back and forth across the aisle.

What’s it like to be among this passel of curious scientists as the plane bumps through a raging storm?

 “When you are flying on the plane in the storm, you can look out of the window, and all the scientists are talking back and forth about the experiment–it’s very exciting,” says researcher and veteran flyer Robbie Hood of the Marshall Space Flight Center. “But there have been times when I wanted to be sitting at my desk, because I was wishing to see the satellite or radar picture at that moment.”

If she flies in the DC-8 during the TC4 field campaign, her wish will come true. What makes this experiment a step up from previous weather experiments is a new tool called Real Time Mission Monitor, or RTMM. Developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM assembles data from the whole armada of satellites and sensors and displays the big picture in living color for researchers on the plane to see. Scientists on the ground can see the display, too, and they will all be chatting with one another via instant

“I think this tool will spark people’s imaginations,” says Hood. “When you are looking at live data, you see things differently than you when you look at the data two weeks later at your desk. And when you have a lot of scientists focusing on something together in real time, it sparks imagination, conversation and collaboration. It will speed the way we make discoveries.”

So these scientists will be brainstorming inside a storm. “Spit, fire! Spout, rain!” Let the rumbling begin.

Author: Dauna Coulter| Editor: Dr. Tony Phillips Credit: Science.nasa.gov