Taking A Look At Autumn 2010

August 31st, 2010

Warm Times Continue

Last year at this time when I was putting together the fall and preliminary winter outlooks I was seeing an El Nino amidst a cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) facing me. That helped to lead to a very chilly winter for much of the eastern U.S. and especially the Southeast. This year the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction and that means a La Nina amidst a cold PDO. So can we expect opposite conditions for this fall/winter? It is appearing so even though the U.S. long range seasonal forecast model (CFS) is predicting otherwise.

The latest run of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal forecast is indicating a cool Fall across much of the eastern U.S. with the coolest being centered over the Mississippi Valley.

This is an interesting forecast that is going against the analog years I have reviewed. I have looked at similar year’s in which we have swung from an El Nino to a La Nina during the summer months and a cold PDO was present. This has provided me with the following years: 1998, 1987, 1973 and 1963. These analog years taken just by themselves and composited provide the following:

Notice the marked difference in the image versus the CFS forecast. The composite would indicate temperatures running above to much above normal for the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valleys, the Plains and into the Rockies. In addition, warmer than normal conditions would also be likely to persist to the Atlantic Coast. It does hint at some cooler than normal conditions being possible in California. I actually think the cooler than normal conditions make extend a bit further north all along the Pacific Coast. Overall, this image fits pretty well into my thinking for this fall. So if you were hoping for the cool, refreshing feel of the season you may be saddened.

Specifically for the Tennessee Valley, the warmth is expected to continue, as well. September will likely be the warmest compared to average with temperatures above normal (2.7 degrees) and precipitation below normal by nearly an inch. The forecast calls for the Valley reaching and even topping 90 degrees 10 times during the month. A few cool mornings are possible, though, as some surges of cool, autumn air sinks into the Valley. Four mornings are forecast to see low temperatures 55 degrees or cooler.

september 2010 outlook
October 2010 will continue to be warm compared to normal but to a slightly lesser degree than September. Temperatures will average nearly 2 degrees above normal with 13 days reaching 80 degrees or higher during the afternoons. The good news for those who truly love the Autumn crispness is that in October we will begin seeing more surges of it into the Valley. This will likely lead to several cool, crisp mornings. My forecast calls for 11 mornings seeing low temperatures of 45 degrees or cooler. This will also allow for the Valley to experience the season’s first frost around October 27th.

In addition to the continuation of the warm trend comes the continuation of the general dry trend, too. This is rather typical in the fall; however, October is expected to be even drier than normal with rainfall coming up short by nearly an inch.

october 2010 outlook

Almost like a broken record, November will remain warm, too. Temperatures are forecast to average above normal yet again, 1.7 degrees. Half the month, 15 days, are forecast to see afternoon highs of 65 degrees or higher’; however, as we continue heading towards winter, mornings will continue to become more chilly. I am forecasting 9 mornings with lows of 35 degrees or cooler. This includes the season’s first freeze which is forecast to occur around November 4th.

november 2010 outlook

One of the most wonderful features of the season is the art show Mother Nature provides through the changing of colors the leaves and foliage. Can we expect a colorful season or somewhat more of a blah one? Unfortunately it is not looking real promising from the Tennessee Valley through the Smokies and along the eastern seaboard. . Not only has it been quite hot this summer but it has also been dry for these locations. Through June/July, some locations in these areas were more than 3” below normal.

NOVEMBER COLOR

The combination of heat and dryness has already begun to create some strain on trees in the Tennessee Valley and some leaves are already changing to browns and yellows and falling. The forecast for precipitation over the next 30 to 45 days, which will lead into the traditional change over season, will be at best, near normal; however, I anticipate much of the area remaining dry, especially for the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic.Best fall color this year will likely be across the Rockies and through the Great Lakes where average to above average precipitation has occurred. The peak of color may be a bit slower to arrive, though, due to the predicted above normal temperatures. I would anticipate about 1 to 2 weeks later than the normal depicted in the map below.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force31

Revised Storm Force 31 Hurricane Forecast

August 18th, 2010

Numbers Reduced

I have started digging into the Fall 2010 and even Winter 2010 outlooks and in the process have seen some changes in the way the tropics are looking. In addition, a few new reference years are being utilized for this forecast; of them, only 1998 was used in the previous forecast. The other years include 1987 and 1973. For this reason, I am revising this year’s tropical forecast to REDUCE the number of expected named storms from 14 to 10. I am also reducing the number of expected hurricanes from 9 to 7 with only two of these forecast to reach “Major” status, category 3 or higher. Storms making a U.S. landfall stayed unchanged at 3.

1973

1973

1987

1987

1998

1998

Dale Bader/Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Will Danielle Make Her Appearance?

August 16th, 2010

Or Not?

The remnants of once Tropical Depression 5 have made their way back over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The center of circulation was located south of the Pensacola, Florida, Monday afternoon, and was drifting west.

 SATELLITE

As of 2:30 PM CT, the eastern side of the low had minimal cloud cover with the western side seeing quite a bit of convection. Enhanced convective development had eased through much of the morning hours but during the last hour or so has begun once again. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft were flying the storm and had located several locations on the relatively convective free eastern side with winds of 20 to 25 mph. As of this post, they had not flown on the convectively filled western side.

I already believe the system is again a tropical depression and I would expect the National Hurricane Center to officially classify it as such by this evening. The disturbed weather will continue to find itself in a favorable environment this evening and into Tuesday as it continues to drift to the west and then northwest. This should allow the system to further develop and organize and I anticipate it will reach close to Tropical Storm strength, becoming Danielle if it does, before making landfall Tuesday evening in southeast Louisiana. The Storm Force 31 computer forecast, BAMS, continues to indicate that Tropical Storm Danielle remains a strong potential. It forecasts the winds of the system to reach Tropical Storm strength, minimum of 39 mph, by late tonight.

tue midnight

By midday Tuesday, it forecasts the system to be at its peak just prior to making landfall and continuing on a track to the northwest.

tuesday midday

This track would take the center of the system near to New Orleans.

tuesday eve

The BAMS, is outside the consensus of most of the models by developing the system into a well organized tropical storm. The majority of the computer forecasts are forecasting a depression with near tropical storm strength or at worst a minimal tropical storm.

 intensity forecasts

Either way, the energy of the system appears it will track into southeast Louisiana on Tuesday and then begin to make a turn to the north through the middle of the week. It will eventually drift towards the northeast through northern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley this weekend meaning another unsettled weekend is likely.

track_early1

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

TD5 MAY GET SECOND SHOT TO BECOME “DANIELLE”

August 15th, 2010

STORM FORCE 31′S BAMS MODEL FORECASTS A HURRICANE

The remnants of what was earlier last week TD 5 are drifting back towards the Gulf of Mexico. Sunday, the low pressure circulation will move out of southeast Alabama and cross through the panhandle of Florida. By early Monday, it will once again be over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It will also begin to find itself back in a favorable environment for development into a tropical system. I anticipate by Monday afternoon, it will again be classified as a tropical depression.

mon eve

Depending on its precise track, it could strengthen into a tropical storm on Tuesday. This strongly depends on a more southerly track, one that keeps it over the warm waters and further away from the coast where it would encounter some frictional shear.

Guidance on Saturday had been trending a bit further north, regarding its track, versus Friday’s runs; however, the first look at the Sunday guidance is back just south of the Coast. One model that has been consistent over the past 48 hours is the Storm Force 31 BAMS model. It continues to track the low south of the Coast from near Destin west to northeast Texas by Wednesday.

On Friday, it was forecasting the system to intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday and Saturday evening’s late run continued this trend.

tue late am

Additionally, it was forecasting the system to strengthen into a strong category 1 to a lower end category two hurricane by midday Wednesday.

wed

I am not sure if it will have enough time and enough going for it to completely strengthen that much but I would not be surprised to see it become Tropical Storm Danielle.

Dale Bader/Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Remnants of TD 5 Going Loop-De-Loop

August 13th, 2010

May Become Tropical Again? Storm Force 31 BAMS Model Indicates Potential Redevelopment Into A Tropical Storm/Hurricane

The remnant low of what was once tropical depression 5 was meandering through southern Mississippi Friday evening. It has sent a spoke of energy across the Tennessee Valley and that help to spawn afternoon showers and thunderstorms with tropical downpours. On Saturday, it will drift to near Montgomery, Alabama and that will bring it into close proximity to the Valley to once again deliver more widespread scattered convection, especially for the southeastern half of the region from Hamilton-Decatur-Huntsville-Winchester southeastward. Locations in this zone will see afternoon rain chances in the “likely” category with precipitation chances at or above 50%.

saturday pops

While northwest of this line rain chances will be less and more scattered. In fact, some in northwest Alabama and Wayne and Lawrence County in Tennessee may not see any rain at all. For this reason, afternoon high temperatures will very by as much as 10 degrees from Ft. Payne to the Shoals, Saturday.

saturday highs

The remnant low will drift into southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia on Sunday and that will take the best rain chances to the east and south of the Valley; however, widely scattered activity is still likely for Marshall, Jackon and DeKalb Counties. The heat will again begin spreading east and by Monday as the low drifts into northwest Florida/northeast Gulf of Mexico, highs will again reach into the upper 90s and possibly top near 100 degrees again. It will also be quite humid meaning Monday will be just plain “HUMISERABLE” and heat index values will likely climb to near 110 degrees again.

loopu

As the low drifts back over the warm Gulf of Mexico, it will find itself back in an environment favorable for redevelopment and strengthening. The low may once again become a depression by  Monday and strengthen even further into a potentially named tropical system by reaching tropical storm strength by early Tuesday. The low will likely drift westward as a light easterly flow around and upper level high pressure system drives its motion. By Tuesday, it will likely be tracking near the Louisianna Gulf Coast and may continue to strengthen. The Storm Force 31 in-house computer forecast model (BAMS) is indicating the possible strengthening of the low to a HURRICANE by midday Tuesday.

possible tropical

The system will then likely drift towards the northeastern/eastern Texas coast by Wednesday into Thursday. If you have plans along the Gulf Coast this weak it is advised that you remain weather aware regarding this system.

Dale Bader/Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

A Decrease In Miserability

August 12th, 2010

A Few T-storms Precede the Cool Front

Today, we sit between an area of tropical moisture and rain to the south and an approaching cold front.  After setting a new record high of 103 Thursday, breaking the 2007 high of 101, it’ll be HOT again Friday with heat indices of 105-110.  A few scattered showers and t-storms are possible Friday and Saturday as the tropical system lingers in South Alabama.  On Sunday and Monday, a cool front will move into the Tennessee Valley with a cool down and slightly lower humidities as we move into next week.

4Cast

A weather pattern shift is underway that will limit the outbreaks of 100+ weather following the cool fronts that move through the Valley next week.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well.  Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Tropical Depression Five No Longer A Depression

August 11th, 2010

Reorganization and Strengthening No Longer Likely

Latest observations from buoys, satellite and reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Five has faded and no longer is a depression. td5_4pm

Officially, the latest information concerning the depression, as of 4pm CT:

  •  Location: 28.3 N   87.6 W or about 170 miles south of Mobile, Alabama
  • Maximum Winds: 30 MPH
  • Movement: NW at 12 MPH
  • Pressure: 29.80”

 The tropical storm warnings that were in effect for the Gulf Coast have been lifted and are no longer in effect.

The remnants of the depression will continue to lift off to the northwest through the remainder of this evening and tonight and will move onshore near Bay St. Louis during the morning hours on Thursday and continue to slowly drift north through Mississippi into Friday before turning more northeasterly through the weekend.

This track will allow deep, gulf moisture to lift northward into Alabama and this will lead to an increase in scattered showers and storms this weekend.  Where the rains fall, some cooling relief from the heat will be felt. Where they don’t, it will be just “humiserably” hot.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

TD 5 May Become Tropical Storm Danielle

August 11th, 2010

Track Dependent; Relief May Be Delivered to the Valley

As of 10 AM CT, Wednesday, tropical depression five had a large circulation pattern but remained overall disorganized over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and storms are occurring from the Louisiana coast to southwest Florida.

The center of the depression was located at 27.8N, 86.8W or about 190 miles south of Pensacola, Florida. Minimum central pressure was 29.77” and the maximum sustained winds were 30 MPH.

Due to the broad nature of the circulation, exact track of the system is tough to discern; however, it appears to generally be drifting northwest at about 12 MPH.

Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect from Destin, Florida to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm force winds are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

td5 SatRad

As TD 5 continues to drift to the northwest through Thursday, it will encounter a more favorable atmospheric wind pattern. This will aid in allowing the system to better organize. However, the broad circulation will act as an inhibiting factor and as a result it is likely the system will be slow to strengthen and may actually struggle to ever reach tropical storm strength.

This is also being indicated by multiple computer guidance forecasts. Several of these actually forecast the depression to remain a depression through the next five days while a few others intensify it to minimal tropical storm force strength. Only a couple of the forecasts predict the system to intensify to near hurricane strength and/or indicate rapid strengthening. The Storm Force 31 forecast model also forecasts slow strengthening and maintains the depression as a depression through its life cycle.

td 5 intensity forecasts

Regarding the track of the system, a likely continuation of a northwestward drift is expected. This will likely allow the system to move onshore along the Mississippi coast Thursday morning. This is supported by the majority of the computer forecasts and the official National Hurricane Center Forecast. The Storm Force 31 model is a bit east and south of the center of the official track; drifting the center of the system towards Montgomery, Alabama by midday Sunday.

td 5 track

The official track would be a favorable one for the Tennessee Valley in that it would help bring some potential relief from the heat. This would be due to the increased coverage area of likely showers and t-storms. This too, would be beneficial for the Valley as the portions of the Valley are experiencing abnormally dry conditions

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

HOT WEATHER CONTINUES

August 2nd, 2010

… PLEASE REMEMBER TO BE EXTRA CAREFUL WITH THE KIDS!

Want to know how hot it has been? Really? Just click HERE and read the information posted by the National Weather Service in Huntsville.

Click Above for A GREAT Website with Information

Click Above for A GREAT Website with Information

The picture above is from a FABULOUS safety information page from GM. Click on the Image to GO THERE and click on the image BELOW for an informative poster from the National Weather Service.

IMPORTANT HEAT INFORMATION FOR KIDS!!!

And to stay safe in the HEAT… Click HERE.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well. Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Staying Safe from Lightning

July 26th, 2010

It is always sad when we have to report a fatality due to weather but even more so when it could have been prevented. Lightning, the second deadliest weather phenomenon, kills an average of 58 people every year in the U.S. and injuring hundreds of others. Many of the injuries are permanent and debilitating.

Year-to-date, 17 fatalities have occurred in 13 states including the tragic death that occurred Sunday on Lake Guntersville.  Since 1959, Alabama has seen 108 lightning fatalities and Tennessee 140. This ranks Alabama 12th and Tennessee as 5th in the nation for total lightning deaths.

Most lightning deaths occur outside in an open space (47%), followed by being under a tree (21%), being on a boat (5%), being on a golf course (4%) and finally being in water (3%). The fatality that occurred on Lake Guntersville was the first lightning death due to swimming in the United States since last September when and 18 year old was struck and killed while swimming at Wrightsville Beach, NC.

Guntersville Strike 7 Miles Ahead of Storm

Remember lightning can strike miles in advance of a thunderstorm or even once it has passed by. That is why it is important to remember this simple phrase, “When thunder roars, go indoors!” For ways to stay safe from the dangers of lightning visit our “Lightning Safety Week” post.

So Just How Warm has 2010 Been?

July 25th, 2010

A Mix of Answers

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Huntsville released the following information regarding just how warm or not so warm 2010 has been through July 22nd. The interesting item of note is that this is the warmest meteorological summer(June 1-Present), so far. And even though we had a warm Spring, too, the year started out so chilly that we are not even close to the warmest year all-time.

HUNTSVILLE 2010 TEMPERATURE RANKINGS AS OF JULY 22ND

SINCE JULY 1ST TIED 5TH WARMEST
SINCE JUNE 21ST (ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER) TIED 4TH WARMEST
SINCE JUNE 1ST (METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER) TIED 1ST WARMEST
SINCE MARCH 20TH (ASTRONOMICAL SPRING/SUMMER) 1ST WARMEST
SINCE MARCH 1ST (METEOROLOGICAL SPRING/SUMMER) 2ND WARMEST
SINCE JANUARY 1ST TIED 34TH WARMEST

MUSCLE SHOALS 2010 TEMPERATURE RANKINGS AS OF JULY 22ND

SINCE JULY 1ST TIED 14TH WARMEST
SINCE JUNE 21ST (ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER) TIED 12TH WARMEST
SINCE JUNE 1ST (METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER) TIED 5TH WARMEST
SINCE MARCH 20TH (ASTRONOMICAL SPRING/SUMMER) TIED 3RD WARMEST
SINCE MARCH 1ST (METEOROLOGICAL SPRING/SUMMER) TIED 9TH WARMEST
SINCE JANUARY 1ST TIED 42ND COOLEST

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

HEAT WAVE SAFETY INFORMATION

July 20th, 2010
 Heat: A Major Killer

Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the United States.The National Weather Service statistical data shows that heat causes more fatalities per year than floods, lightning, tornadoes and hurricanes combined. Based on the 10-year average from 2000 to 2009, excessive heat claims an average of 162 lives a year. By contrast, hurricanes killed 117; floods 65; tornadoes, 62; and lightning, 48.

In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. In the heat wave of 1995 more than 700 deaths in the Chicago area were attributed to heat. In August 2003, a record heat wave in Europe claimed an estimated 50,000 lives.

North American summers are hot; most summers see heat waves in or more parts of the United States. East of the Rockies, they tend to combine both high temperature and high humidity, although some of the worst heat waves have been catastrophically dry. Additional detail on how heat impacts the human body is provided under “The Hazards of Excessive Heat” heading.

NOAA’s Watch, Warning, and Advisory Products for Extreme Heat

Each National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) can issue the following heat-related products as conditions warrant:

Excessive Heat Outlook: are issued when the potential exists for an excessive heat event in the next 3-7 days. An Outlook provides information to  those who need considerable lead time to prepare for the event, such as public utilities, emergency management and public health officials.

Excessive Heat Watch: is issued when conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event in the next 12 to 48 hours. A Watch is used when the risk of a heat wave has increased, but its occurrence and timing is still uncertain. A Watch provides enough lead time so those who need to prepare can do so, such as cities who have excessive heat event mitigation plans.

Excessive Heat Warning/Advisory are issued when an excessive heat event is expected in the next 36 hours. These products are issued when an excessive heat event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occuring. The warning is used for conditions posing a threat to life or property. An advisory is for less serious conditions that cause significant discomfort or inconvenience and, if caution is not taken, could lead to a threat to life and/or property.

How Forecasters Decide Whether to Issue Excessive Heat Products

NOAA’s heat alert procedures are based mainly on Heat Index Values. The Heat Index, sometimes referred to as the apparent temperature and given in degrees Fahrenheit, is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored with the actual air temperature.

To find the heat index, look at the Heat Index Chart. As an example, if the air temperature is 96°F (found on the top of the table) and the relative humidity is 65% (found on the left of the table), the heat index–how hot it feels–is 121°F. The National Weather Service will initiate alert procedures when the Heat Index is expected to exceed 105°- 110°F (depending on local climate) for at least 2 consecutive days.

IMPORTANT: Since heat index values were devised for shady, light wind conditions, exposure to full sunshine can increase heat index values by up to 15°f. also, strong winds, particularly with very hot, dry air, can be extremely hazardous.

The Heat Index Chart shaded zone above 105°F shows a level that may cause increasingly severe heat disorders with continued exposure and/or physical activity.

The Hazards of Excessive Heat

Heat disorders generally have to do with a reduction or collapse of the body’s ability to shed heat by circulatory changes and sweating or a chemical (salt) imbalance caused by too much sweating. When the body heats to quickly to cool itself safely, or when you lose much fluid or salt through dehydration or sweating, your body temperature rises and heat-related illness may develop. Heat disorders share one common feature: the individual has been in the heat too long is exercised too much for his or her age and physical condition.

Studies indicate that, other things being equal, the severity of heat disorders tend to increase with age. Conditions that cause heat cramps in a 17-year-old may result in heat exhaustion in someone 40, and heat stroke in a person over 60.

Sunburn, with its ultraviolet radiation burns, can significantly retard the skin’s ability to shed excess heat.

Acclimatization has to do with adjusting sweat-salt concentrations, among other things. The idea is to lose enough water to regulate body temperature, with the least possible chemical disturbance/salt depletion.

Children, Adults and Pets Enclosed in Parked Vehicles Are at Great Risk

Each year children die from hyperthermia as a result of being left in parked vehicles. Hyperthermia is an acute condition that occurs when the body absorbs more heat than it can dissipate. Hyperthermia can occur even on a mild day. Studies have shown that the temperature inside a parked vehicle can rapidly rise to a dangerous level for children, adults and pets.  Leaving the windows slightly open does not significantly decrease the heating rate. The effects can be more severe on children because their bodies warm at a faster rate than adults.

Shown below is a time lapse photo of a thermometer reading in a car over a period of less than an hour. As the photograph shows, in just over 2 minutes the call went from a safe temperature to 94.3 degree F. These photos demonstrate just how quickly a vehicle can become a death trap for a child.

Hyperthermia deaths aren’t confined to summer months. They also happen during the spring and fall. Below are some examples.

  • Honolulu, HI, March 07, 2007: A 3-year-old girl died when the father left her in a child seat for an 1.5 hours while he visited friends in a Makiki apartment building.  The outside temperature was only 81 degrees. 
  • North Augusta, SC, April 2006: A mother left her 15 month old son  in a car. He was in a car for 9 hours while his mom went to work. She is now serving a 20-year prison sentence.
  • Denver, CO, August 2008: Two kids that died in an overheated car may have been on their own for more than 3 hours as their mother slept after working a night shift.  The kids died in a closed but unlocked car. Investigators believe the temperature in the car may have reached 123 degrees F.

Adults are in danger too. On July 12, 2001, a man died of heatstroke after falling asleep in his car with the windows rolled up in the parking lot of a supermarket in Hinds County, MS.

How Fast Can the Sun Heat A Car?

The atmosphere and the windows of a car are relatively “transparent” to the sun’s shortwave radiation (yellow in figure below) and are warmed little. This shortwave energy, however, does heat objects it strikes. For example, a dark dashboard or seat can easily reach temperatures in the range of 180 to more than 200 degrees F.

These objects (e.g., dashboard, steering wheel, childseat) heat the adjacent air by conduction and convection and also give off longwave radiation (red) which is very efficient at warming the air trapped inside a vehicle.

Objects Heated by the Sun Warm Vehicle’s Air

CLICK HERE FOR ANIMATION (700K)
( Hi-Res ~ 2.5 mb.WMV file)
Individual Frames:
0 min, 10 min, 20 min, 30 min, 40 min, 50 min, 60 min
(Animation Courtesy of General Motors and Golden Gate Weather Services)

Heat Safety

Child Safety Tips

  • Make sure your child’s safety seat and safety belt buckles aren’t too hot before securing your child in a safety restraint system, especially when your car has been parked in the heat.
  • Never leave your child unattended in a vehicle, even with the windows down.
  • Teach children not to play in, on or around cars.
  • Always lock car doors and trunks–even at home–and keep keys out of children’s reach.
  • Always make sure all children have left the car when you reach your destination. Don’t leave sleeping infants in the car ever!

Adult Heat Wave Safety Tips

  • Slow down. Reduce, eliminate or rescheduled strenuous activities until the coolest time of the day. Children, senior and anyone with health problems should stay in the coolest available place, not necessarily indoors.
  • Dress for summer. Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing to reflect heat and sunlight.
  • Put less fuel on your inner fires. Foods, like meat and other proteins that increase metabolic heat production also increase water loss.
  • Drink plenty of water or other non-alcohol or decaffeinated fluids. Your body needs water to keep cool. Drink plenty of fluids even if you don’t feel thirsty. Persons who have epilepsy or heart, kidney, or liver disease, are on fluid restrictive diets or have a problem with fluid retention should consult a physician before increasing their consumption of fluids. Do not drink alcoholic beverages and limited caffeinated beverages.
  • During excess heat period, spend more time in air-conditioned places. Air conditioning in homes and other buildings markedly reduces danger from the heat. If you cannot afford an air conditioner, go to a library, store or other location with air conditioning for part of the day.
  • Don’t get too much sun. Sunburn reduced your body’s ability to dissipate heat.
  • Do not take salt tablets unless specified by a physician.

Heat Disorder Symptoms

SUNBURN: Redness and pain. In severe cases swelling of skin, blisters, fever, headaches. First Aid: Ointments for mild cases if blisters appear and do not break. If breaking occurs, apply dry sterile dressing. Serious, extensive cases should be seen by physician.

HEAT CRAMPS: Painful spasms usually in the muscles of legs and abdomen. Heavy sweating. First Aid: Firm pressure on cramping muscles or gentle massage to relieve spasm. Give sips of water. If nausea occurs, discontinue water.

HEAT EXHAUSTION: Heavy sweating, weakness, skin cold, pale and clammy. Pulse thready. Normal temperature possible. Fainting and vomiting. First Aid: Get victim out of sun. Once inside, the person should lay down and loosen clothing. Apply cool, wet cloths. Fan or move victim to air conditioned room. Offer sips of water. If nausea occurs, discontinue water. If vomiting continues, seek immediate medical attention.

HEAT STROKE (or sunstroke): High body temperature (106° F or higher). Hot dry skin. Rapid and strong pulse. Possible unconsciousness. First Aid: HEAT STROKE IS A SEVERE MEDICAL EMERGENCY. SUMMON EMERGENCY MEDICAL ASSISTANCE OR GET THE VICTIM TO A HOSPITAL IMMEDIATELY. DELAY CAN BE FATAL. White waiting for emergency assistance, move the victim to a cooler environment Reduce body temperature with cold bath or sponging. Use extreme caution. Remove clothing, use fans and air conditioners. If temperature rises again, repeat process. Do not give fluids. Persons on salt restrictive diets should consult a physician before increasing their salt intake.

For more information contact your local American Red Cross Chapter. Ask to enroll in a first aid course.

Community Guidance: Preparing for and Responding to Excessive Heat Events

The Excessive Heat Events Guidebook was developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2006, in collaboration with the National Weather Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and theDepartment of Homeland Security. This guidebook provides best practices for saving lives during heat waves in urban areas, and provides a menu of options that communities can use in developing their own mitigation plans.

This page was produced as a cooperative effort of the National Weather Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the American Red Cross.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

T-storms Lower Temps a LITTLE Bit

July 15th, 2010

But THAT Won’t Last Long

A return to showers and thunderstorms will highlight the forecast for the end of the week and the first part of the weekend, with scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms FRI and SAT, with a return to some isolated t-storms in the afternoon hours after that.

20100717

However, as an area of high pressure builds gives way and builds again, we’ll see temperatures climb back into the middle to upper 90s into next week with some areas seeing 100 degrees a time or two even.

20100716.Tropics

As for the tropics, a few waves in the Atlantic are worth watching, but nothing is an imminent threat.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well.  Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Mixed News Concerning Oil Along the Gulf Coast

July 10th, 2010

 More Oil Being Released But Less Arriving on Alabama and Florida Beaches

 As Day 82 of the Gulf oil disaster continues, there is mixed news with regards to the oil spewing out of a well previously part of the Deepwater Horizon rig. British Petroleum removed a leaking cap from the top of the well on Saturday, in order for them to be able to replace it with a more secure one. Unfortunately, the process could take as long as two days meaning oil will flow unrestricted into the Gulf during the transition time.

  Gulf Oil Spill

The news could become quite good if the new cap works as planned. It is anticipated the new cap will fit tighter  and will be able to funnel all of the oil to awaiting tanker ships at the surface. This would potentially end the contamination of the oil from the well into the Gulf of Mexico.

Already some good news was being reported, though, for Alabama and Florida beaches as less oil and tar balls were washing ashore. Saturday’s high-resolution satellite, from NASA, showed that much of the oil that was easily visible on  images in weeks past has dissipated and only the thicker oil near the well site is apparent.

OMNI Max Depicting NASA Satellite Imagery of Oil Spill From Saturday July 10, 2010

 
However, tar balls and occasional light sheen is being detected in pockets near the Mississippi and Louisiana Gulf coasts. These images show the difference in aerial coverage of the oil in just the last week.The first image is from Friday, July 2, 2010 and the second is from Saturday, July 10, 2010. 

Oil Coverage Friday, July 2, 2010Oil2

The main reason for this drastic change in coverage is strongly related to the choppy seas that have occured over the last week as a result of Hurricane Alex and recent tropical waves and a tropical depression that have passed through the Gulf of Mexico. These systems have helped to increase the wave activity across the Gulf and this in turn has helped to dissipate and break-up the oil.

The forecast for oil into early next week continues to keep most of the oil away from Alabama and Florida beaches; however, a few tar balls are possible from Orange Beach to Dauphin Island.

Oil3

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

JULY IS HERE!!

July 1st, 2010

But Don’t Hold Your BREATH!

Who would have thought we’d be EXCITED to see July arrive and June exit because of record heat.  No need to belabor the point.

Dry air behind the cool front this week will be the dryest Friday morning, allowing morning lows to drop to 65 in the metro areas, and to near 60 in rural areas, with lows as cool as 57 in some of the mountain valleys.

7day

After that… highs and lows start slowly climbing back upward to near 95 by Wednesday. And as humidities increase, our friend the HEAT INDEX will return as well.  Hoping for cooler weather in summer is simply a losing battle in the Tennessee Valley.

Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well.  Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Brad-Huffines-Storm-Force-31-Chief-Meteorologist/100462946668216?ref=sgm