StormForce31.com Weather Blog

Cotton Delayed and Lower Quality Because of Recent Weather

Tonight, WAAY-31’s Haley Baker reported on the way the recent weather has affected our local cotton crop.  With Madison County, AL, being the state’s largest county producer of Cotton, a bad year for Cotton affects us all.

The National Cotton Council is a great source of information on the nation’s cotton crops and economy of the cotton industry.  The link I have posted above shows the current statistics regarding the nation’s cotton harvest.  However, the information I have pulled from that link is summarized both in the enclosed graphics as well as in my weather follow-up to our news story from WAAY-31 News at 6pm.

TO SEE THE VIDEO, CLICK HERE TO OPEN THE VIDEO OF THE REPORT. 

Overall Alabama’s weather for the next 10 days looks fairly good for the harvesting of our cotton, but any period of rains will slow that process.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Here is another interesting story from our neighbors in the Valley at Marshall Space Flight Center.

Evidence for a thin veil of carbon has been found on the neutron star in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant. This discovery, made with NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory, resolves a 10-year mystery surrounding this object.

“The compact star at the center of this famous supernova remnant has been an enigma since its discovery,” said Wynn Ho of the University of Southampton and lead author of a paper that appears in the latest issue of Nature. “Now we finally understand that it can be produced by a hot neutron star with a carbon atmosphere.”

By analyzing Chandra’s X-ray spectrum – akin to a fingerprint of energy – and applying it to theoretical models, Ho and his colleague Craig Heinke, from the University of Alberta, determined that the neutron star in Cassiopeia A, or Cas A for short, has an ultra-thin coating of carbon. This is the first time the composition of an atmosphere of an isolated neutron star has been confirmed.

The Chandra “First Light” image of Cas A in 1999 revealed a previously undetected point-like source of X-rays at the center. This object was presumed to be a neutron star, the typical remnant of an exploded star, but researchers were unable to understand its properties. Defying astronomers’ expectations, this object did not show any X-ray or radio pulsations or any signs of radio pulsar activity.

NASA

By applying a model of a neutron star with a carbon atmosphere to this object, Ho and Heinke found that the region emitting X-rays would uniformly cover a typical neutron star.

This would explain the lack of X-ray pulsations because — like a lightbulb that shines consistently in all directions — this neutron star would be unlikely to display any changes in its intensity as it rotates.

Scientists previously have used a neutron star model with a hydrogen atmosphere giving a much smaller emission area, corresponding to a hot spot on a typical neutron star, which should produce X-ray pulsations as it rotates. Interpreting the hydrogen atmosphere model without pulsations would require a tiny size, consistent only with exotic stars made of strange quark matter.

“Our carbon veil solves one of the big questions about the neutron star in Cas A,” said Craig Heinke. “People have been willing to consider some weird explanations, so it’s a relief to discover a less peculiar solution.”

Unlike most astronomical objects, neutron stars are small enough to understand on a human scale. For example, neutron stars typically have a diameter of about 14 miles, only slightly longer than a half-marathon. The atmosphere of a neutron star is on an even smaller scale. The researchers calculate that the carbon atmosphere is only about 4 inches thick, because it has been compressed by a surface gravity that is 100 billion times stronger than on Earth.

“For people who are used to hearing about immense sizes of things in space, it might be a surprise that we can study something so small,” said Ho. “It’s also funny to think that such a thin veil over this star played a key role in frustrating researchers.”

In Earth’s time frame, the estimated age of the neutron star in Cas A is only several hundred years, making it about ten times younger than other neutron stars with detected surface emission. Therefore, the Cas A neutron star gives a unique window into the early life of a cooling neutron star.

The carbon itself comes from a combination of material that has fallen back after the supernova, and nuclear reactions on the hot surface of the neutron star which convert hydrogen and helium into carbon.

The X-ray spectrum and lack of pulsar activity suggest that the magnetic field on the surface of this neutron star is relatively weak. Similarly low magnetic fields are implied for several other young neutron stars by study of their weak X-ray pulsations. It is not known whether these neutron stars will have low magnetic fields for their entire lives, and never become radio pulsars, or whether processes in their interior will lead to the development of stronger magnetic fields as they age.

NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., manages the Chandra program for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory controls Chandra’s science and flight operations from Cambridge, Mass.

More information, including images and other multimedia, can be found
at: http://chandra.harvard.edu and http://chandra.nasa.gov

Information for this post provided in full from Marshall Space Flight Center

Dale Bader, Meteorologist/Storm Force 31

pix@waaytv.com, Subject: FALL

As you are out and about this autumn and taking pictures of the scenery in NorthAlabama and Southern Middle Tennessee, many of you have chosen to share with us some of those images.  The pictures below are just 3 of those gorgeous images.  Periodically, I will be picking some of them out to share with the viewers of WAAY-31 News.  These three pictures below were used during a weathercast Monday, November 2, 2009.

Some gorgeous pictures in deed.  But you have some in your camera or cell phone RIGHT NOW that you can share with us.  So please do!  So send them to pix@waaytv.com, and if you want to, sign up for a free membership  at http://mywaay.waaytv.com.

I look forward to seeing your submissions!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorolgst / Storm Force 31

Showers, Severe T-storms, and a COLD Breeze Move Through the Valley

Rain and thunderstorms will be moving across the Tennessee Valley Friday Night and Saturday in the early morning hours.  Though this is the same storm causing severe weather and tornado damage in Louisiana and Arkansas Thursday and early Friday, it will not carry the same punch it has there as it moves through here.

Keep in mind, though, that there will be the likelihood of thunderstorms strong enough to bring damaging winds and perhaps isolated smaller tornadoes.  That is the reason to remain WEATHER AWARE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

Behind that system, we’ll see cooler air rush in Saturday afternoon, accompanied by the chance for some remaining showers and drizzle well through the afternoon and into the evening hours, especially in the Northeast Mountains of Alabama.

Sunday morning will be chilly, with sunshine and cool temperatures Sunday afternoon.  Prepare yourself for a frost Monday morning before another slow warm-up next week.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Peak Color Has Arrived, Unfortunately May Not Last Long

This weekend marked the peak for Fall color in the Valley. Here are some pictures you have shared with us using MyWAAY. We greatly appreciate your assistance, and thank you.

Please note, due to the fast paced weather pattern this week that will deliver a couple of storm systems, the Fall color will quickly be “leafing” us. A storm system will arrive on Tuesday and another on Friday. Both with provide the threat for a period of heavy rain and a period of some breezy winds. Together, this will help for the leaves to fall.

Dale Bader

Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

Could Mean a Productive Yield Becoming Reduced

August, September and October are traditionally the driest months of the year for the Tennessee Valley, which is critical because it is “Harvest Time”. Unfortunately, this trend has not held true for this year. Normally, the three months (August, September, October) provide the Valley with 11.15″ of rainfall. This year has been unusually wet, with August receiving 5.44″, September receiving 5.96″ and October through the 24th receiving 6.35″, totaling 17.75″. This has provided the Valley with more than 6.5″ of rain compared to normal. In addition, there are a total of 92 days between the three months and through the 24th, 46 have seen some amount of rainfall. That is 50% of the available days being wet!

All of this rain has caused this year’s crop harvest to be very slow to completely hindered. The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service provides reports on the quality and progress of certain crops per each state. A look at the most recent data indicates the following:

Cotton

To date, only about 5% of the crop in Alabama has been harvested. Compared to last season at this same time, the crop was about 40% harvested.  In addition, the cotton condition is becoming worse. At the start of the month, the combination of crop being good and excellent was about 60%. Currently, this number is at 40% and continuing to slip in the wrong direction. Early indications were for a very good cotton crop but due to the abundant rains the crop can not be brought in from the field. Some of the reason is simply the fact the field is too wet to allow for heavy harvest machinery into the field. Another is that the continuous rain has triggered plants to begin sprouting new growth. Also, some of the cotton crop is rotting on the plant and cotton is hardening inside the bolls. When the crop is then harvested the boll crumbles and the cotton falls to the ground making it unsalvageable.

Corn

Corn numbers are a bit better but also well behind last year. To date, only about 60% of the crop has been harvested in Tennessee. This time last year the number was nearing 100%. There is good news, though, the condition of the crop is remaining good with nearly 80% of the crop having either good or excellent condition.

Soybeans

Soybeans are also being affected. Over the last 5 years, nearly 60% of the crop would be harvested by now. However, only about 20% has been brought it so far. Like corn, though, the quality of the crop remains good with more than 80% being classified as good or excellent.

Unfortunately, more rain is on the WAAY this week with rain likely again on Tuesday and again late Thursday into Friday. This will likely continue to keep the fields wet and the harvest slow.

Dale Bader

Meteorologist/Storm Force 31

Hurricane Neki and the Hawaiian Islands

As we reported on WAAY-31 News at 10 on Thursday night, a late season Pacific hurricane, Neki, is approaching the northern Hawaiian Islands, not a part of the State of Hawaii.

In the French Frigate Shoals, there are only teams of scientists, many of whom fork for NOAA Marine Fisheries Department, had to be rescued from the Tern Island Airport.

The WAAY-31 report follows.

AMAZING VIDEO FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT!  THE U-S COAST GUARD RESCUED 10 PEOPLE FROM A NORTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLAND TODAY IN THE FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE TERN ISLAND AIR STRIP.  IT’S PART OF THE A PERSONNEL EVACUATION AHEAD OF HURRICANE NEKI.

THE HURRICANE IS HEADED RIGHT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  NEKI IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY THREE ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOMETIME TOMORROW MORNING.

The reason for the evacuation, the Tern Island Airstrip has a high point of 5 feet above sea level, and there is a chance for 15 to 20 foot seas to pass by the island.  That would inundate this airport, made mostly of crushed coral, and the rest of the island and the buildings on it.

It will be interesting to see how the island chain weathers this storm, as this is home to Monk Seals and the Hawaiian Green Turtle, both specied endangered and threatened by this hurricane.  For more information on the French Frigate Shoals, CLICK HERE.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist /Storm Force 31

Courtesy of Marshall Space Flight Center.. not the Show, but the Images Below!

If you care to get up at 3 or 4am Wednesday morning, you might to plan to get outdoors and see the light show high above the southeast horizon, by looking just left of the 3 stars that make up Orion’s belt, and watch for UP TO 20 meteorites per hour as the earth passes through the tail of Halley’s Comet.  Though not the most spectacular shower of the year, it just might be a good reson to get up, brew a cup of coffee, and watch what nature has provided for tonight.

You can also view a very short NASA-MSFC video here.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Fall Severe Weather Awareness Day is Wednesday, October 21

The information provided in this post comes directly from the National Weather Service Office in Huntsville

National Weather Service offices across Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are conducting a Severe Weather Awareness Day on Wednesday, October 21, 2009. The purpose of this day is to call attention to the secondary peak severe weather season that occurs in Late Fall. Historically, November has been an active month for severe weather and tornadoes.

Guntersville Lake (EF-3) Tornado - April 2009

Severe weather and tornadoes can occur throughout the months of December, January and February as well.  In the last 10 years (since 1999), 88 tornadoes have touched down across the state of Alabama, with 2 violent (EF4-EF5) tornadoes ripping across North Alabama during the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak of February 5-6, 2008.

Recent Fall Season Severe Weather Episodes across the Valley

• 2009: Severe thunderstorms produced widespread wind damage across much of North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee on October 9th. An EF-1 tornado touched down just south of Fayetteville, Tennessee resulting in extensive damage around the Timber Lake community.
• 2007: Severe thunderstorms caused considerable straight-line wind damage across Northwest Alabama on October 18th. An EF-1 tornado tracked into southern Lawrence County, downing several trees in Bankhead National Forest.
• 2004: Severe weather occurred before the typical November secondary peak. Tornadoes struck Lauderdale and Colbert Counties on October 18th (check out the storm survey here).
• 2003: A significant line of thunderstorms plowed through the Tennessee Valley on November 18th, resulting in significant straight-line wind damage. Damaging wind gusts can be just as destructive as tornadoes.
• 2002: The infamous Veteran’s Day Tornado Outbreak produced an F3 tornado in Cullman County, which damaged more than 150 structures (check out the storm survey here).
• 2001: Six of the eight tornadoes that hit Northern Alabama this year occurred with the November 24th outbreak. This event broke a record for the number of tornadoes that occurred during a 24-hour period in the state of Alabama.
• Of course, the infamous 1989 Huntsville tornadooccurred in November as well. This F4 tornado (207-260 mph winds) tore through south Huntsville on November 15, 1989, touching down on Redstone Arsenal at 4:30pm. The tornado eventually killed 21 people, injured more than 460 people, and caused more than $250 million in damages.

This the perfect time of the year to check your preparedness plans. Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio has fresh batteries in it. Make sure you have a means of receiving severe weather information. Make sure you know what you should do if threatening weather approaches.

And don’t forget WAAY 31’s Weather Call. It is the most advanced weather alerting service available and for just $6.95 per year it could save your life! You can learn more and also sign up for Weather Call by clicking here.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31

NOAA: El Niño to Help Steer U.S. Winter Weather

Below, I have literally cut-and-paste the seasonal outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regarding the winter outlook and El Nino’s effects on our winter climate.  Read below for more information on El Nino. – Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Such seasonal outlooks are part of NOAA’s suite of climate services.

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”

“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) include:

Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across much of the western and central U.S., especially in the north-central states from Montana to Wisconsin. Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible.

Below-average temperatures are expected across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Texas to southern Pennsylvania and south through Florida.

Above-average precipitation is expected in the southern border states, especially Texas and Florida. Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas. However, tornado records suggest that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.

Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.

Northeast: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance.

California: A slight tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions over the entire state.

Alaska: Milder-than-average temperatures except along the western coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-median precipitation for most areas except above median for the northwest.

Hawaii: Below-average temperatures and precipitation are favored for the entire state.

This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

Visit http://www.noaa.gov.

Following the SRB from Michoud to Kennedy

Steve Roy, who leads Marshall Space Flight Center’s Public Affairs, is taking an ocean voyage.  Not the kind where there is unlimited gourmet food, pools, and broadway shows, but one that delivers a backbone to the nation’s Space Shuttle fleet.  As the ET-134 external fuel tank is towed from the Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans to Kennedy Space Center, Steve will remain aboard for the entire six-day cruise.

While on the Liberty Star, the ship that tows NASA’s Pegasus barge, carrying the ET to the shuttle launch facility at Cape Canaveral.  Marshall Television producer  Mick Speer will also be shooting video stories as well along the way.  Bookmarking the “Sailing with NASA” blog will bring some never before seen images of a little publicized piece of the Space Shuttle puzzle.

Enjoy!

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Memories of a Four Year Drought Fading Fast

With as many people who told me that when the rains start again, I’ll never complain about the rain again, I am surprised to hear how many people have forgotten the parched land we have all had to live from the past 4 years.  But this year, with the past few weeks deep into the throes of a wet weather pattern, Huntsville’s official NWS Rain Gauge is running over 8″ above average, with the one in the Shoals 4+.

Taken By Leslie Moody, WAAY-31 Director of Interactive Media, Sent to mywaay.waaytv.com. Join us there!

More scattered showers headed our way Tuesday with rain likely, heavy at times, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Then after more scattered showers Wednesday, rain is again likely Thursday, with perhaps a thunderstorm.  Friday starts a three day period of a short-term upper level wind pattern change, when we drop into the 50s for HIGHS for Friday and Saturday, and the potential for our first FROST Sunday morning.

As Autumn continues to arrive, the colors of the season will begin to show. Share what you are seeing by sending your fall foliage and other weather pictures and video with the Storm Force 31 team by becoming a member of the team yourself. Simply become a part of MyWAAY. To register, for free, or to learn more simply click here.

Remain Weather Aware, check the 7-Day Forecast for Details, and follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on facebook as well.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Showers Likely, Some Heavy T-storms Possible

Thursday’s highs were in the MIDDLE 80s this afternoon, with a heat index as high as 88.  Tonight we will see temperatures staying in the 70s most of the night with increasing humidities.  That sets the stage with enough moisture to cause widespread rains and some thunderstorms.  NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight chance for severe t-storm threat across the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains until 6am Friday. 

As the storm system advances, the Storm Prediction Center has forecast a slight risk for severe t-storms through parts of the Tennesssee Valley, meaning we at Storm Force 31 will be watching the weather carefully.

Depending on the amount of heat in the air, the timing of the squall line that develops ahead of the cold front and the upper level wind’s proximity, we have a chance to see some strong to severe thunderstorms that could contain damaging winds, deadly lightning, and a slight chance for isolated tornadoes.  Therefore, remain weather aware, and go to http://weathercall.waaytv.com and sign up for WeatherCall NOW.

Showers will linger into Saturday morning before the clouds break in the afternoon.  Another leading edge of cooler air will move in Sunday, spurring a slight chance for a passing shower before highs start off in the 60s next week.

Remain Weather Aware, check the 7-Day Forecast for Details, and follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on facebook as well.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

Southwest Jet Stream Winds Gives Us Unsettled Weeks

When upper level winds blow over the Southeastern part of the United States in the Autumn, it usually means a wet and unusually warm period, including a few chances for some strong to severe thunderstorms.  Most of the stronger outbreaks of severe weather occur when the clashes are great between near record breaking highs and near record breaking lows.  The Subtropical Jet Stream is a flow of upper level winds greatly affected by the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean.  El Nino, as it is known, is the name for the Southern Oscillation which occurs when sea surface temperature shifts between Western and Eastern Pacific.  When looking at SST maps, look for the orange and red coloration off the coast of Northern South America, Central America, Mexico and the coastline of Southern California.

Current SSTs show warmer than normal temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, which will tend to strengthen the Subtropical Jet, keep us in the unsettled flow for weeks, and shunting off the coldest air incursions as they head toward the Tennessee Valley.  Our current Jet Stream flow maintains SW winds aloft, and keeps us in the unsettled weather pattern we currently seem to be mired in until the El Nino either weakens, of the Polar Jet Stream strengthens.

You see, forecasting is indeed a very complex science that has meteorologists looking thousands of miles in all directions to give you the best forecasts for your outdoor plans.

Brad Huffines, Chief Meteorologist / Storm Force 31

It is Coming, Just Wait A Few Weeks

Yes, it is October but it is still a bit early to expect much in the WAAY of fall color across the Tennessee Valley. Peak colors across the region are normally between the 15th and 31st of the month. But with the cool nights, mild days and loss of daylight, colors should begin to be noticed over the next week. If you are wanting to already see some fall color, you will have to drive to the north into the Ohio Valley. Some color is being reported in portions of the southern Appalachians across eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina but it is still relatively low. More brilliant colors are still holding back in the northern Great Lakes. Just stay patient as it won’t be long and the colors of the season will be here, too. We will provide you with another fall foliage report next weekend. Lastly, if you see fall color and what to share it with the Valley simply take a picture and email it to pix@waaytv.com or register and become a member of our MyWAAY team.

Dale Bader / Meteorologist, Storm Force 31