Once again we’re faced with a challenging forecast as another round of wet and possibly dangerous weather pays a visit to the Tennessee Valley.

To set the stage for you, an area of low pressure will gradually track northeast from Texas in to Tennessee Valley producing areas of rainfall through the day tomorrow. As of now, our threat for severe storms looks to be on the low side however I believe one or two storms may be slightly on the strong side as this system cross the region. Again I stress our biggest threat will be lots of rain, which because of an already saturated ground, will create the possibility for flash flooding and some river flooding.

Timing on this system is fairly consistent when comparing the most recent runs of our forecast models so moderate to heavy showers will begin Thursday morning on the west side of the Valley and track east and exit into Georgia by the evening. Skies will clear into Friday and, thanks to high pressure, we’ll stay rain free for the weekend however we’ve got a booster shot of cold air arriving Saturday night and Sunday. Highs should stay in the upper 50’s to low 60’s for the weekend with overnight lows dipping into the upper 20’s and low 30’s.

Past this week, our next “round o’rain” arrives late next Tuesday into Wednesday.

As promised on my Facebook forecast update, I want to pass along some flash flood safety tips for you all. While I don’t expect our conditions to be as dramatic as some of the pictures in the following link, the documentation provides some excellent safety tips on how to handle flash floods when driving. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/Floodsbrochure_9_04_low.pdf

Chief Meteorologist Spencer Denton will have a full update on the forecast coming today at 4, 5, and 10 on WAAY 31 FirstNews.

Have a great Wednesday.

Ben Luna
StormForce 31 Weather

After dodging a meteorological bullet last night and this morning, we were able to enjoy a beautiful day across North Alabama and Southern Tennessee. This pleasantry, while short lived, will persist for Tuesday.

Anticipate sun and clouds for Tuesday with highs averaging in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. Clouds will increase tomorrow night into Wednesday that will aid in ushering rain to the region Wednesday evening.

By Thursday we’ll be in the need for raincoats and umbrellas as scattered showers, with a thundershower or two, linger over the valley. Clouds should exit the region during the course of Friday and, in doing so, should help to set the stage for a fair weekend but cooler as compared to workweek temperatures.

One more thing… I’ve observed a number of e-mails and social media messages in the past 24 hours about some not receiving StormForce 31 WeatherCalls last night in advance of severe weather. While I can’t attest to every question of if a customer’s service was working, I do what to make one point clear.

A few years ago the National Weather Service changed it’s warning system to be more local and specific than a generalized full county warning that was in place for many years. These new warnings highlighted the storm cell in need of alerting the public to and a path of the areas to be affected.

For example, this morning a tornado warning was issued for southern Madison County that affected New Hope. The storm in question continued to track east-northeast into central Jackson County. The warning box was drawn by the NWS for the storm and it’s track. The warning area and storm never affected, for example, Harvest or Meridianville.

With that said, WeatherCall uses the hyper-local technology that is designed to alert you only if the storm is going to pose a threat to you and your registered address with the system so there was no reason for a WeatherCall alert to be sent to customers in Harvest and Meridianville.

I hope this explanation sheds a little light for some of you who had a question about the service. More info can be found at www.weathercall.net/waay

Have a great Tuesday,

Ben Luna
StormForce 31 Weather

P.S. Keep our neighbors in Jefferson and Tuscaloosa Counties in your thoughts and prayers as the recovery begins again in Central Alabama.

After starting the weekend with a round of severe weather, it appears we’ll find ourselves in a similar situation early Monday.

The National Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the entire Tennessee Valley region for a slight risk of severe weather beginning late Sunday night into early Monday.

Moving ahead of the main line of storm activity will be the potential for scattered super cell development therefore we’ll have the threat for an isolated tornado into the early hours of Monday morning. Most current, Northwest Alabama, Southwest Middle Tennessee, and Northeast Mississippi will have the greatest concentration of unstable air; therefore the areas west of Interstate 65 will have see great potential for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

This most recent threat of severe storms will form when a large upper-level low pressure system tracks out of the Rocky Mountains into the Mid-West overnight into Sunday afternoon.

These storms, once in the TN Valley, will be capable of producing hail, very strong winds, and more heavy rain which will add to a very saturated ground therefore increasing the chance for flooding and flash flooding.

Past an estimated 1 a.m. – 3 a.m. arrival time Monday morning, our skies will clear into the evening allowing for partly cloudy Tuesday. Temperatures remain mild into next week with another thundershower chance arriving late Wednesday into Thursday.

As many Tennessee Valley residents will be sleeping during the early Monday morning severe weather threat, it’s highly important for you to ensure your weather radios are in proper working order with fresh batteries and correct programming. WAAY 31 is a proud sponsor of WeatherCall, a service that will phone your home or cell phone to advise you of an impending severe storm threat. More information on this service can be found here: http://www.waaytv.com/content/weathercall/default.aspx

Stay with WAAY 31 and the StormForce Weather Team for the very latest.

Moderate to heavy rains falling over the Valley this afternoon with still the threat of hail producing thunderstorms lingering to the evening hours as well. Given the amount of rain we’ve seen this afternoon NWS Huntsville has issued a Flash Flood Warning until 6 p.m. for Madison County, until 5:30 for Limestone, and until 5 for Lauderdale. Best advice for driving in conditions such as this afternoon: Turn Around… Don’t Drown when attempting to cross flooded areas.

Rain will persist thru the remainder of the afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes the moisture from the west to the east. Skies will gradually clear into Wednesday with gusty winds playing the biggest factor in out late night weather as a blast of ARCTIC air moves in. Just how cold? Our high today averages in the 60’s… the low by tomorrow morning… around 27 degrees. I believe wind gusts could be as high into tomorrow as 30 mph.

We’re sunny and colder tomorrow with a highs in the 40’s and in even better shape as the 50’s return on Thursday. Don’t get too accustomed to seeing sunshine… Clouds and rain will return into Friday evening and Saturday.

Have a safe evening and stay with WAAY 31 for the very latest on a very rainy and stormy afternoon/night.

Ben Luna
StormForce 31 Weather

A bit of a warm up headed our way for the Tennessee Valley at the beginning of the work week. As we go through the overnight hours tonight expect increasing clouds as an approaching surface Low moves southeast and  into our viewing by Monday. We will see spotted showers across North Alabama late Monday Afternoon and possible isolated T-storms for the majority of the day Tuesday. After the cold front passes we will experience falling temperatures back in the Mid-Upper fourties for daily highs and Lows in the Lower thirties.

As the title of this blog entry suggests there is a slim chance for measurable snow in the forecast. Moving through the afternoon a center of low pressure will gradually cross the area reinforcing colder air and providing a short lived opportunity for a handful of us to see a few snow flakes and maybe a very light dusting in the extreme northeastern part of our viewing area.

Most of the valley will do good to see a flurry through this evening and, given the track of the storm system, should stay accumulation free. The very northeastern corner of North Alabama (high elevations) may see enough of a snow shower that a small dusting could occur.

Something that EVERYONE will experience over the next 24 hours is a major blast of COLD air in addition to very strong winds. As the influx of cold, arctic air makes its way into the TN Valley you’ll notice wind speeds significantly increasing upwards of around 25 mph. Lows in the region tonight will reach the lower 20’s in most locations with highs Friday doing good to climb over the 40 degree mark.

High pressure will build to the south allowing for us to have a mostly sunny Friday and Saturday. Sunday still looks good with a few more clouds then mostly cloudy Monday and Tuesday with a very good rain chance returning early next week as well.

Have a good and warm Thursday evening.

Ben Luna
StormForce 31 Weather

Critical thickness lines as of noon

Thursday Potential Snowfall NAM

Look for some stray showers early tomorrow as an up low and a surface cold front push into the area. Temps will start in the 40’s and fall into the 30’s by mid afternoon. Any moisture will fall as some flurries or light snow showers after 1pm. No accumulation expected. However, higher elevations and parts of middle and south TN could see a dusting if you get under one of those heavier snow showers. The Cumberland Plateau between Nashville and Knoxville may get a couple of inches of snow and travel may be problematic along I-40 in those areas. No major travel issues expected…

Instability Chart From the NAM Model For Midnight.

The instability and shear are not lining up making for a very low threat for severe weather overnight. The best chance for any strong storms will be across west Alabama where the instability in the chart above shows between 500 and 700 j/kg. Basically, there is just enough to support storms with some gusty wind and hail. A few warnings may be issued, but do not be alarmed. This is not a high threat. Timing for storms is between 10pm and 6am. I’ll be watching the radar overnight and will have updates on my facebook page http://www.facebook.com/spencer.denton31

Also, you find the latest information on watches and warnings on waay 31…look for the crawl at the bottom of the screen.

It’s a foggy start to the week however despite a gloomy day outdoors many of you are preparing for a party tonight with the BCS National Championship Game. The same storm system that’s affecting our friends in New Orleans today will continue to influence our weather into the next 48 hours.

A closed low pressure system to the west will gradually work it’s way over the Tennessee Valley bringing in more rain, including a few thunderstorms, late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A blast of arctic air arrives Wednesday ending our stent of above average, mild days.

Skies will gradually clear into Thursday but you’ll for sure feel the chill by the end of the week.

StormForce 31 Forecast:

Tuesday: P.M. Rain/Thundershowers High: 63 / Low: 50
Wednesday: A.M. Rain then slowly clearing High: 59 / Low: 43
Thursday: Sun, Clouds, and COLD! High: 50 / Low: 22
Friday: Partly Sunny High: 44 / Low: 22

Happy Friday all! We’ve seen a varied week with our weather as we’ve seen some of the coldest air so far for the season and some of the warmest as well. Things look to be more consistent moving into the weekend and next week with the addition of clouds, chilly temperatures, and a few different rain chances.

At best I feel as though we’ll see around a 30% rain chance for Friday night into Saturday then lingering scattered showers with clouds for Sunday and Monday. A short lived dome of high pressure will take shape on Tuesday before eroding to another storm system on Wednesday that will produce an even greater rain chance for the area.

Temperatures over the next few days will continue vary in the mid to low 50’s during the afternoon then falling into upper 30’s to mid 40’s at night.

Have a great weekend!

Ben Luna
StormForce 31 Weather

After a mild and mostly quiet end to 2011, get ready for a big reminder that it’s Winter in the Tennessee Valley. A cold front tracks into the region overnight making for a few early Sunday morning showers. Skies will clear into Sunday afternoon but this will open the “barn door” to a major rush of COLD, Arctic air that you’ll feel as early as Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually decline thru Tuesday when morning lows across the Valley could be in the ballpark of the upper teens and low 20’s. Afternoon highs will be in the 40’s and upper 30’s before rebounding to the 50’s by Wednesday.

We’ll be in a dry pattern thru much of the week however by Friday night into Saturday look for scattered showers to reappear over the area.

That’s a quick look at 2012 weather! For the entire StormForce 31 Weather Team, I sincerely hope you have a wonderful and blessed New Year.

Ben Luna
WAAY 31 StormForce Weather

Rain will continue thru the course of the evening likely producing up to 2 inches of rainfall accumulation in some Valley locations.

This large area of moisture will gradually pull out of the area Tuesday evening setting the stage for Wednesday sunshine.

Christmas Eve Forecast:

Overnight: Mostly Cloudy. Cold…A Sprinkle or Shower. Low 37.
Christmas Day: Mostly Cloudy. Passing Shower South. High 51.
Christmas Night: Mostly Cloudy. A Few Showers. Low 40.
Monday: Mostly Cloudy. Rain By Afternoon. High 54.

Merry Christmas…I’ll be back in the office on Tuesday!

From StormForce 31 Chief Meteorologist Spencer Denton: Looking at another small threat for severe storms tomorrow between noon and 6pm…main threat again will be gusty wind. Most areas will just see heavy rain and a few storms…the best shot at seeing a few severe storms is west of I-65 and south of the TN River. Central Alabama will have much higher instability while northwest Alabama will have greater shear…severe threat is less for extreme northeast Alabama and Southern TN. Again, this is a low-end threat but stay weather alert in case a stronger storm move into your area.

Stay with the StormForce 31 Weather Team for the very latest on this threat!

-Ben Luna

A disturbance will begin to cross the Tennessee Valley into Tuesday bringing more rain and a chance for a few strong to severe storms.

Gulf moisture will continue to progress into the region thanks to a southerly flow helping to set the stage for a few strong to severe storms mainly west of Interstate 65. The threat, while not a extremely high widespread chance, will exist Tuesday afternoon into the night before diminishing early Wednesday morning. The biggest threat from this round will be gusty winds. Rest assured the StormForce 31 Weather Team will keep you up to date on any severe weather that should develop.

Slightly cooler air will be in place on Wednesday before another rain maker arrives Thursday evening into Friday.

Sun and clouds should be in place for the holiday weekend although a storm system passing close could provide us with a shower chance around Christmas, something we’ll keep you posted on as well.

Have a great Tuesday!

Ben